Market Read®

  • Saturday, April 18 2015

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 01, 2013 and March 16, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: F)

Ford Motor Credit Company


Bearish

Ford Motor Company develops, manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles, parts, and accessories worldwide. The company operates through two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector offers vehicles primarily under the Ford and Lincoln brand names. It markets cars, utilities, trucks, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers in North America, South America, Europe, Turkey, Russia, and the Asia Pacific region. This sector also sells vehicles to dealers for sale to fleet customers, including commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments, as well as provides maintenance and repair services. The Financial Services sector offers various automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers. This sector provides financing products, which include retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; leases for new vehicles to retail customers, government entities, daily rental car companies, and fleet customers; wholesale financing that comprise loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; loans to dealers to finance working capital, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle program financing; and other financing products, as well as provides insurance services. Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of F expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Flag, Falling Continuation' pattern. Specifically, a Breakout (Stocks) DO variant of Flag, Falling Continuation has been detected. The target is $11.62. more
  • INSIDER predicts that F will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • FRICTION FACTOR detects negative price friction, allowing the price to more easily move down to $12.70 by February 02, 2013. more
  • FRICTION FACTOR detects negative price friction, allowing the price to more easily move down to $12.19 by March 01, 2013. more
  • VALUATION F has a current calculated value of $8.62 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $15.76.

Predictive Range January 29, 2013 - March 16, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$12.66 - $11.87

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ford Motor Credit Company (NYSE: F) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. F has demonstrated Flag, Falling Continuation strategy Breakout (Stocks) DO with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of F expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Breakout (Stocks) DO' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Breakout (Stocks) DO variant of Flag, Falling Continuation has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that F will move down in the coming weeks.

Friction Factor

 

Uses stock price and transaction volume to help time buying and selling decisions.

Ford Motor Credit Company (NYSE: F) is expected to go lower The Friction Factor displays how many more shares of buying than selling are required to move a stock higher by one cent or how many more shares of selling than buying moves a stock lower by 1 cent.

  • The price of F expected to move down.
  • Negative price friction detected in the volume of the stock indicates the price should move to $12.70 by February 02, 2013.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Ford Motor Credit Company (NYSE: F) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of F expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, F is expected to fall to $10.99.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for F is 12.64.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-03-31 69484043 1119221171.03 16.1076
2015-02-28 119878957 1920341012.18 16.019
2015-01-31 141773118 2124526882.48 14.9854
2014-12-31 140940586 2145524446.62 15.2229
2014-11-30 92467374 1327683542.84 14.3584
2014-10-31 239508503 3373860478.36 14.0866
2014-09-30 168487721 2746552037.57 16.3012
2014-08-31 113200260 1945742669.01 17.1885
2014-07-31 180438915 3166576651.01 17.5493
2014-06-30 131409973 2212286895.45 16.835
2014-05-31 114377967 1822395586.01 15.9331
2014-04-30 178993603 2866045571.24 16.012
2014-03-31 166678940 2567622399.12 15.4046
2014-02-28 206051777 3094547402.52 15.0183
2014-01-31 129881788 2054781838.88 15.8204
2013-12-31 197636137 3219611253.41 16.2906
2013-11-30 11849553 202212621.945 17.065
2013-10-31 171242076 2927862767.03 17.0978
2013-09-30 209051993 3599143637.48 17.2165
2013-08-31 203162240 3377694137.34 16.6256

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused F's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused F's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-03-23 0.09 7804197 11259821 -3455624 Bullish Bias
2015-03-20 0.16 7304310 22437813 -15133503 Bullish Bias
2015-03-19 -0.12 5200156 7928231 -2728075 -227339.5833
2015-03-18 -0.27 8126947 9972661 -1845714 -68359.77778
2015-03-17 -0.1 7258770 7361542 -102772 -10277.2
2015-03-16 0.24 10272026 19871279 -9599253 Bullish Bias
2015-03-13 -0.01 9087984 8532566 555418 Bearish Bias
2015-03-12 0.39 10519908 12998426 -2478518 Bullish Bias
2015-03-11 0.02 6602180 8347255 -1745075 Bullish Bias
2015-03-10 -0.29 9066166 11689650 -2623484 -90464.96552
2015-03-09 0.14 5392816 7099253 -1706437 Bullish Bias
2015-03-06 -0.17 6884231 9993005 -3108774 -182869.0588
2015-03-05 0.15 5664637 6873683 -1209046 Bullish Bias
2015-03-04 -0.15 8974220 9191035 -216815 -14454.33333
2015-03-03 -0.41 14551862 13165640 1386222 Bearish Bias
2015-03-02 0.23 8699813 9248387 -548574 Bullish Bias
2015-02-27 -0.04 5359500 9563556 -4204056 -1051014
2015-02-26 -0.05 6647651 8607590 -1959939 -391987.8
2015-02-25 0.15 8904077 8620949 283128 18875.2
2015-02-24 -0.05 5309584 7209505 -1899921 -379984.2

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. F has a current value of 8.62 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $15.76 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.895 78.32 11606 559 95.40%
SqueezeTrigger 12.606 22.06 9217 592 93.96%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.314 15.18 49929 4725 91.35%
Group Correlation 6.519 14.76 4231 437 90.64%
PatternScan 8.535 11.5 180654 26489 87.21%
Events 6.902 11.23 4047 626 86.60%
Earnings 8.539 10.33 23607 4753 83.24%
GATS 5.375 7.87 61409 12573 83.01%
Naked Shorts 13.908 10.94 2665 691 79.41%
Friction Factor 7.167 3.63 6847 1965 77.70%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$15.76
52 Week Range$14.40 - $18.08
1 Month Range$16.65 - $18.08
Avg Daily Volume26335570.0
PE Ratio10.77
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$1.607
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding3954MM
Market Capitalization$69081.00MM
 
 

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