Market Read®

  • Friday, July 29 2016

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 01, 2013 and March 16, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: F)

Ford Motor Credit Company


Bearish

Ford Motor Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, markets, finances, and services automobiles. The company operates through two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector develops, manufactures, distributes, and services passenger cars, trucks, SUVs, light commercial vehicles, trucks, vans, and electrified vehicles, as well as offers parts and accessories. It offers vehicles primarily under the Ford and Lincoln brand names. This sector markets and sells its products through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to fleet customers, including commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. The Financial Services sector offers various automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers. It provides financing products, including retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, government entities, daily rental car companies, leasing companies, and fleet customers. This sector also offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and improvement of dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. It serves clients in North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of F expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Flag, Falling Continuation' pattern. Specifically, a Breakout (Stocks) DO variant of Flag, Falling Continuation has been detected. The target is $11.62. more
  • INSIDER predicts that F will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • FRICTION FACTOR detects negative price friction, allowing the price to more easily move down to $12.70 by February 02, 2013. more
  • FRICTION FACTOR detects negative price friction, allowing the price to more easily move down to $12.19 by March 01, 2013. more
  • VALUATION F has a current calculated value of $8.62 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $12.73.

Predictive Range January 29, 2013 - March 16, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$12.66 - $11.87

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ford Motor Credit Company (NYSE: F) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. F has demonstrated Flag, Falling Continuation strategy Breakout (Stocks) DO with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of F expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Breakout (Stocks) DO' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Breakout (Stocks) DO variant of Flag, Falling Continuation has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that F will move down in the coming weeks.

Friction Factor

 

Uses stock price and transaction volume to help time buying and selling decisions.

Ford Motor Credit Company (NYSE: F) is expected to go lower The Friction Factor displays how many more shares of buying than selling are required to move a stock higher by one cent or how many more shares of selling than buying moves a stock lower by 1 cent.

  • The price of F expected to move down.
  • Negative price friction detected in the volume of the stock indicates the price should move to $12.70 by February 02, 2013.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Ford Motor Credit Company (NYSE: F) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of F expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, F is expected to fall to $10.99.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for F is 13.15.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2016-07-31 179960856 2336377805.19 12.9827
2016-06-30 402453167 5223198182.59 12.9784
2016-05-31 321897253 4299452849.42 13.3566
2016-04-30 82222696 1059940996.41 12.8911
2016-03-31 10709632 140885208.96 13.155
2016-02-29 155913232 1816950440.44 11.6536
2016-01-31 258793059 3220550222.73 12.4445
2015-12-31 107575070 1509600957.31 14.033
2015-11-30 86124110 1242245550.23 14.4239
2015-10-31 21808188 302950624.421 13.8916
2015-09-30 155908899 2157966252.84 13.8412
2015-08-31 140512256 1978496871.83 14.0806
2015-07-31 128213605 1889189005.59 14.7347
2015-06-30 114204240 1730799518.47 15.1553
2015-05-31 70350356 1088939090.45 15.4788
2015-04-30 99540728 1585653934.82 15.9297
2015-03-31 69484043 1119221171.03 16.1076
2015-02-28 119878957 1920341012.18 16.019
2015-01-31 141773118 2124526882.48 14.9854
2014-12-31 140940586 2145524446.62 15.2229

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused F's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused F's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2016-07-18 0.08 9341858 6667587 2674271 334283.875
2016-07-15 -0.03 7635103 6580688 1054415 Bearish Bias
2016-07-14 0.11 9428068 14524464 -5096396 Bullish Bias
2016-07-13 -0.01 11288610 7510824 3777786 Bearish Bias
2016-07-12 0.17 10084861 11923218 -1838357 Bullish Bias
2016-07-11 0.18 11063082 9207972 1855110 103061.6667
2016-07-08 0.34 16021667 14425027 1596640 46960
2016-07-07 0.19 10167684 11510404 -1342720 Bullish Bias
2016-07-06 0.17 13861694 9308740 4552954 267820.8235
2016-07-05 -0.31 11457499 7963013 3494486 Bearish Bias
2016-07-01 0.15 12939062 17714930 -4775868 Bullish Bias
2016-06-30 0.01 18238695 12705470 5533225 5533225
2016-06-29 0.05 10736663 10092904 643759 128751.8
2016-06-28 0.25 11054184 15416576 -4362392 Bullish Bias
2016-06-27 -0.37 18075203 17052564 1022639 Bearish Bias
2016-06-24 -0.89 34154112 29813871 4340241 Bearish Bias
2016-06-23 0.22 7719025 7179652 539373 24516.95455
2016-06-22 0.02 7586202 5609265 1976937 988468.5
2016-06-21 -0.2 13363777 8353085 5010692 Bearish Bias
2016-06-20 0.14 8458311 11768577 -3310266 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. F has a current value of 8.62 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $12.73 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 18.243 83.46 15828 761 95.41%
SqueezeTrigger 14.896 21.67 11192 867 92.81%
Valuation 19.577 27.08 4010 317 92.67%
Seasonality 11.123 15.23 58750 6605 89.89%
Group Correlation 8.321 15.19 12169 1469 89.23%
PatternScan 12.273 11.44 238500 38310 86.16%
Events 9.872 11.17 4635 825 84.89%
GATS 8.763 7.88 86704 20379 80.97%
Earnings 12.983 10.43 24036 5849 80.43%
Naked Shorts 20.075 10.97 2829 777 78.45%
Friction Factor 10.727 3.62 8263 2544 76.46%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$12.73
52 Week Range$14.40 - $18.08
1 Month Range$16.65 - $18.08
Avg Daily Volume26335570.0
PE Ratio10.77
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2016(E)$1.607
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding3954MM
Market Capitalization$69081.00MM
 
 

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