Market Read®

  • Friday, July 11 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between February 28, 2013 and May 04, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: CCL)

Carnival Corp.


Bearish

Carnival Corporation operates as a cruise and vacation company worldwide. The company operates in two segments, North America; and Europe, Australia, and Asia. It provides cruises to various vacation destinations with a fleet of 100 cruise ships under the brand names of Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; and AIDA Cruises, Costa, Cunard, Ibero Cruises, and P&O Cruises in Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company also owns and operates hotels, as well as offers tourism and transportation services. It operates approximately 12 hotels or lodges, 300 motor coaches, and 20 domed rail cars. The company sells its cruises through travel agents, including wholesalers, general sales agents, and tour operators. Carnival Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.Carnival Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Carnival Corporation & Plc.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of CCL expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Common Gap' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Common Gap has been detected. The target is $34.95. more
  • INSIDER predicts that CCL will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • VALUATION CCL has a current calculated value of $26.56 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $36.43.

Predictive Range December 28, 2012 - May 04, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$37.58 - $33.89

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. CCL has demonstrated Common Gap strategy Reversal (Stocks) DWC with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of CCL expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Reversal (Stocks) DWC' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Common Gap has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that CCL will move down in the coming weeks.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of CCL expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, CCL is expected to fall to $32.83.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for CCL is 35.10.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-05-31 9515357 373030540.471 39.203
2014-04-30 14513388 548495764.651 37.7924
2014-03-31 17725588 688694043.123 38.8531
2014-02-28 13803241 547580091.766 39.6704
2014-01-31 19748125 797138990.062 40.3653
2013-12-31 25998103 969516057.455 37.2918
2013-11-30 6792512 241750256.838 35.5907
2013-10-31 31059060 1031226016.03 33.2021
2013-09-30 4884136 176590821.216 36.156
2013-08-31 18857785 693962716.443 36.7998
2013-07-31 15673601 566907878.73 36.1696
2013-06-30 26065857 871543207.823 33.4362
2013-05-31 25789689 883719799.15 34.2664
2013-04-30 20964702 706223240.983 33.6863
2013-03-31 28224525 984192009.202 34.8701
2013-02-28 24625754 912921027.137 37.0718
2013-01-31 17100421 649398747.728 37.9756
2012-12-31 16981014 640447433.517 37.7155
2012-11-30 15895662 609854557.858 38.3661
2012-10-31 17536578 656062673.216 37.4111

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused CCL's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused CCL's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-05-28 -0.13 662768 587381 75387 Bearish Bias
2014-05-27 -0.37 557213 927441 -370228 -10006.16216
2014-05-23 0.22 514875 580425 -65550 Bullish Bias
2014-05-22 0.13 1016420 594179 422241 32480.07692
2014-05-21 0.23 1038843 933405 105438 4584.26087
2014-05-20 0.34 1033241 1068916 -35675 Bullish Bias
2014-05-19 0.6 1371743 1188384 183359 3055.983333
2014-05-16 -0.3 912212 952623 -40411 -1347.033333
2014-05-15 -0.43 856561 610931 245630 Bearish Bias
2014-05-14 -0.38 787016 877599 -90583 -2383.763158
2014-05-13 -0.32 530716 455100 75616 Bearish Bias
2014-05-12 0.62 665456 637580 27876 449.6129032
2014-05-09 -0.05 859468 598412 261056 Bearish Bias
2014-05-08 -0.09 416015 534248 -118233 -13137
2014-05-07 0.21 815584 703894 111690 5318.571429
2014-05-06 0.14 907302 907450 -148 Bullish Bias
2014-05-05 0.1 856180 875219 -19039 Bullish Bias
2014-05-02 0.15 1310899 1069505 241394 16092.93333
2014-05-01 -0.65 1115107 927133 187974 Bearish Bias
2014-04-30 -0.06 1074573 691680 382893 Bearish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. CCL has a current value of 26.56 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $36.43 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.136 73.18 9093 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.738 22.37 7780 473 94.27%
Group Correlation 7.341 14.99 1310 87 93.77%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.459 15.21 42599 4123 91.18%
PatternScan 8.449 11.37 133502 19274 87.38%
Events 6.943 11.2 3389 543 86.19%
GATS 5.387 7.94 45083 8534 84.08%
Earnings 8.678 10.28 21689 4352 83.29%
Naked Shorts 14.518 10.83 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.501 3.63 5601 1604 77.74%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$36.43
52 Week Range$31.44 - $41.89
1 Month Range$36.71 - $40.26
Avg Daily Volume3868265.0
PE Ratio26.7
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$1.407
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding777MM
Market Capitalization$29425.00MM
 
 

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