Market Read®

  • Monday, August 03 2015

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between February 28, 2013 and May 04, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: CCL)

Carnival Corp.


Bearish

Carnival Corporation operates as a cruise company worldwide. It provides vacations to various cruise destinations. The company offers cruise services under the Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn brand names in North America; and AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, Cunard, and P&O Cruises names in Europe, Australia, and Asia. It operates 100 cruise ships. It also owns and operates 12 hotels or lodges, and approximately 300 motor coaches and 20 glass-domed railcars. The company sells its cruise services through retail, online and home-based agents, wholesalers, general sales agents, and tour operators. Carnival Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of CCL expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Common Gap' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Common Gap has been detected. The target is $34.95. more
  • INSIDER predicts that CCL will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • VALUATION CCL has a current calculated value of $26.56 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $53.26.

Predictive Range December 28, 2012 - May 04, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$37.58 - $33.89

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. CCL has demonstrated Common Gap strategy Reversal (Stocks) DWC with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of CCL expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Reversal (Stocks) DWC' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Common Gap has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that CCL will move down in the coming weeks.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of CCL expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, CCL is expected to fall to $32.83.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for CCL is 36.03.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-07-31 745956 37126230.12 49.77
2015-06-30 1497219 70571567.2869 47.1351
2015-05-31 10733936 497481438.218 46.3466
2015-04-30 4485339 216230119.58 48.2082
2015-03-31 7816794 349989916.235 44.7741
2015-02-28 13715289 597993458.044 43.6005
2015-01-31 15550345 710789164.571 45.7089
2014-12-31 23475460 1034934434.47 44.0858
2014-11-30 4141567 166316633.429 40.1579
2014-10-31 4593057 179753878.752 39.136
2014-09-30 19350397 771887336.33 39.89
2014-08-31 11345000 418523857.0 36.8906
2014-07-31 15010222 552167527.514 36.7861
2014-06-30 19379602 755864554.766 39.0031
2014-05-31 9515357 373030540.471 39.203
2014-04-30 14513388 548495764.651 37.7924
2014-03-31 17725588 688694043.123 38.8531
2014-02-28 13803241 547580091.766 39.6704
2014-01-31 19748125 797138990.062 40.3653
2013-12-31 25998103 969516057.455 37.2918

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused CCL's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused CCL's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-07-01 0.24 1073682 1209913 -136231 Bullish Bias
2015-06-30 0.44 692343 1009501 -317158 Bullish Bias
2015-06-29 -1.1 623746 789798 -166052 -1509.563636
2015-06-26 0.59 795373 1896515 -1101142 Bullish Bias
2015-06-25 0.2 1267593 1673557 -405964 Bullish Bias
2015-06-24 0.36 1298980 1592741 -293761 Bullish Bias
2015-06-23 -0.46 1582748 1617182 -34434 -748.5652174
2015-06-22 1.0 1789241 1799622 -10381 Bullish Bias
2015-06-19 0.37 1366077 2058766 -692689 Bullish Bias
2015-06-18 0.55 972292 1079179 -106887 Bullish Bias
2015-06-17 0.13 505844 541899 -36055 Bullish Bias
2015-06-16 0.22 613513 547589 65924 2996.545455
2015-06-15 -0.41 599930 437728 162202 Bearish Bias
2015-06-12 -0.41 340521 587234 -246713 -6017.390244
2015-06-11 0.8 870874 671364 199510 2493.875
2015-06-10 -0.2 1229524 1232274 -2750 -137.5
2015-06-09 0.04 563432 440877 122555 30638.75
2015-06-08 -0.23 456802 506827 -50025 -2175
2015-06-05 -0.14 437864 660030 -222166 -15869
2015-06-04 -0.38 765264 807185 -41921 -1103.184211

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. CCL has a current value of 26.56 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $53.26 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 16.154 80.71 12639 570 95.68%
SqueezeTrigger 12.482 21.79 9670 654 93.67%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.277 15.24 52276 4910 91.41%
Group Correlation 6.446 14.62 6153 738 89.29%
PatternScan 8.433 11.43 192852 28711 87.04%
Events 6.826 11.27 4223 643 86.79%
Earnings 8.491 10.29 24322 4882 83.28%
GATS 5.376 7.85 67571 13947 82.89%
Naked Shorts 13.807 10.96 2745 706 79.54%
Friction Factor 6.987 3.63 7338 2100 77.75%

Prediction Success

 

Past success in predictions regarding Carnival Corp..

  • September 18, 2014 - Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), Up By 5.17% ($1.96) From $37.910 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Strength Before Earnings

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$53.26
52 Week Range$31.44 - $41.89
1 Month Range$35.96 - $39.62
Avg Daily Volume4022270.0
PE Ratio25.89
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$1.407
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding777MM
Market Capitalization$28594.00MM
 
 

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