Market Read®

  • Monday, July 14 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between April 10, 2013 and May 29, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: FRME)

First Merchants Corp.


Bullish

First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank, National Association that provides community banking services. The company offers a range of financial services, including accepting time deposits, and savings and demand deposits; making consumer, commercial, agri-business, and real estate mortgage loans; renting safe deposit facilities; providing personal and corporate trust services; offering full-service brokerage; and providing other corporate services, letters of credit, and repurchase agreements. It also operates as a property, casualty, personal lines, and employee benefit insurance agency. The company operates 76 banking locations in 24 Indiana and 2 Ohio counties. Its delivery channels include ATMs, check cards, remote deposit capture, interactive voice response systems, and Internet technology. First Merchants Corporation was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Muncie, Indiana.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of FRME expected to move up in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Trend Line Break(4)' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Trend Line Break(4) has been detected. The target is $15.74. more
  • SEASONALITY expects the price of FRME expected to move up to $15.21 by January 28, 2013. more
  • INSIDER predicts that FRME will move up based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • INSIDER predicts that FRME will move up based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • SQUEEZETRIGGER predicts that when FRME closes above $11.46, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of FRME considerably higher.
  • VALUATION FRME has a current calculated value of $21.17 which means the stock is undervalued compared to its price of $21.06.

Predictive Range January 24, 2013 - May 29, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$14.98 - $17.66

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

First Merchants Corp. (NASDAQ: FRME) is predicted to go up in coming weeks based on bullish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. FRME has demonstrated Trend Line Break(4) strategy ACT EOD with a strength of 3.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of FRME expected to move up in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Trend Line Break(4) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that FRME will move up in the coming weeks.

Seasonality

 

Predicts probability and percentage of stock movements based on seasonal factors.

First Merchants Corp. (NASDAQ: FRME) is predicted to go up in coming weeks based on bullish trends that appear around this time of the year. By identifying stocks that are poised to go up or down based on seasonal tendencies, traders can increase their odds of making money. FRME, currently trading at 21.06 expected to hit $15.21 by January 28, 2013.

  • The price of FRME expected to move up to $15.21 by January 28, 2013.
  • Expected gain of 2.69% from price at time of prediction (14.81).
  • This pattern has held 11.0 of the last 13.0 seasonal periods. (84.62%)

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

First Merchants Corp. (NASDAQ: FRME) is expected to go higher as buy signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of FRME expected to move up soon.
  • Insider buying has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, FRME is expected to rise to $19.90.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for FRME is 11.46.

This means that when FRME closes above $11.46, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of FRME considerably higher.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-06-30 54964 1096586.764 19.951
2014-05-31 187451 3890976.6423 20.7573
2014-04-30 22257 498205.1394 22.3842
2014-03-31 107731 2345853.2981 21.7751
2014-02-28 48189 995734.1259 20.6631
2014-01-31 69120 1513278.72 21.8935
2013-12-31 205033 4314488.9157 21.0429
2013-11-30 99875 1867662.5 18.7
2013-10-31 544159 10209892.0693 18.7627
2013-09-30 233975 4025212.31 17.2036
2013-08-31 316831 5781468.7218 18.2478
2013-07-31 441498 8117293.9284 18.3858
2013-06-30 483516 8239402.7496 17.0406
2013-05-31 710850 11521101.375 16.2075
2013-04-30 52294 786465.1542 15.0393
2013-03-31 34512 518611.824 15.027
2013-02-28 138576 2087938.4496 15.0671
2013-01-31 184582 2766293.5176 14.9868
2012-12-31 48790 658660.121 13.4999
2012-11-30 261451 3616337.9418 13.8318

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused FRME's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused FRME's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-06-05 0.32 85111 59569 25542 798.1875
2014-06-04 -0.12 67394 70647 -3253 -271.0833333
2014-06-03 0.2 38874 63223 -24349 Bullish Bias
2014-06-02 0.0 46646 44968 1678 Bearish Bias
2014-05-30 -0.23 15910 43973 -28063 -1220.130435
2014-05-29 -0.02 13865 13173 692 Bearish Bias
2014-05-28 -0.32 25051 22012 3039 Bearish Bias
2014-05-27 0.74 74673 84757 -10084 Bullish Bias
2014-05-23 0.24 60620 40897 19723 821.7916667
2014-05-22 -0.16 29508 55685 -26177 -1636.0625
2014-05-21 -0.26 36261 53304 -17043 -655.5
2014-05-20 -0.33 35600 90294 -54694 -1657.393939
2014-05-19 0.41 20655 20286 369 9
2014-05-16 -0.14 34786 36028 -1242 -88.71428571
2014-05-15 -0.16 51837 52363 -526 -32.875
2014-05-14 -0.61 30287 80991 -50704 -831.2131148
2014-05-13 -0.44 34445 42519 -8074 -183.5
2014-05-12 0.53 112005 85121 26884 507.245283
2014-05-09 0.01 80934 84894 -3960 Bullish Bias
2014-05-08 -0.28 60121 55810 4311 Bearish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. FRME has a current value of 21.17 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $21.06 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$21.06
52 Week Range$16.67 - $23.35
1 Month Range$20.00 - $22.10
Avg Daily Volume96740.0
PE Ratio15.18
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$1.416
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding36MM
Market Capitalization$788.90MM
 
 

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