Market Read®

  • Saturday, July 12 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 04, 2013 and March 13, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: CODI)

Compass
Diversified
Holdings


Bullish

Compass Diversified Holdings is a public investment firm specializing in acquiring controlling stakes in small to middle market companies. The firm seeks to make middle market and buyout investments. It seeks to invest in industries such as manufacturing, distribution, consumer products, and business services. The firm prefers to invest in companies based in North America with a preferred transaction size between $60 million and $300 million in value, cash flows between $5 million and $40 million, with enterprise values between $50 million and $250 million, and a minimum EBITDA of $10 million. It seeks to acquire controlling ownership interests in its portfolio companies and can also make additional platform acquisitions. The firm makes investments through balance sheet. Compass Diversified Holdings was founded in 2005 and is based in Westport, Connecticut. Compass Diversified Holdings operates as a subsidiary of The Compass Group LLC.

Investment Highlights

  • GATS predicts CODI will move up in the coming weeks. Target is $16.45. more
  • SQUEEZETRIGGER predicts that when CODI closes above $14.48, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of CODI considerably higher.
  • VALUATION CODI has a current calculated value of $20.71 which means the stock is undervalued compared to its price of $18.43.

Predictive Range March 04, 2013 - March 13, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$15.82 - $16.45

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

GATS

 

Reduces risk by selecting the highest probability trades across market indices.

Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE: CODI) is expected to go up as bullish signals have been generated by top equity trading strategies. This trading system is designed to identify high probability reversion to mean trading candidates. It looks to go long immediately following strong sell-offs, and goes short after sharp run ups. Its trades are short term and hone in on the irrational decisions of emotional traders around these extreme moves.

  • The price of CODI expected to move up in the coming weeks.
  • Suggested stop level of 14.24 to limit potential trading losses.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for CODI is 14.48.

This means that when CODI closes above $14.48, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of CODI considerably higher.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-01-31 320714 6192217.6264 19.3076
2013-12-31 189279 3586363.8525 18.9475
2013-11-30 426839 7980309.9957 18.6963
2013-10-31 1004383 18653903.2675 18.5725
2013-09-30 424004 7531625.4524 17.7631
2013-08-31 634270 11247953.899 17.7337
2013-07-31 887079 16051162.2576 18.0944
2013-06-30 603033 10265611.6689 17.0233
2013-05-31 986635 17235132.161 17.4686
2013-04-30 975275 16055757.27 16.4628
2013-03-31 14946 233456.52 15.62
2013-02-28 27279 433463.31 15.89
2013-01-31 1205882 18766176.8604 15.5622
2012-12-31 362228 5155554.9012 14.2329
2012-11-30 374301 5285504.421 14.121
2012-10-31 727909 11001107.0897 15.1133
2012-09-30 215047 3201404.689 14.887
2012-08-31 840745 12041570.2625 14.3225
2012-07-31 959465 13623443.535 14.199
2012-06-30 1289061 16374039.5403 12.7023

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused CODI's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused CODI's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-01-14 0.07 52437 49590 2847 406.7142857
2014-01-13 -0.06 67082 60655 6427 Bearish Bias
2014-01-10 -0.05 73823 42897 30926 Bearish Bias
2014-01-09 0.07 46505 44412 2093 299
2014-01-08 -0.28 41556 40687 869 Bearish Bias
2014-01-07 0.14 32941 43189 -10248 Bullish Bias
2014-01-06 0.01 29934 37842 -7908 Bullish Bias
2014-01-03 0.11 52184 39255 12929 1175.363636
2014-01-02 -0.41 46883 72393 -25510 -622.195122
2013-12-31 0.65 63019 57160 5859 90.13846154
2013-12-30 -0.35 45162 78527 -33365 -953.2857143
2013-12-27 0.58 54361 43193 11168 192.5517241
2013-12-26 0.03 32118 23130 8988 2996
2013-12-24 0.05 12808 15586 -2778 Bullish Bias
2013-12-23 -0.03 50598 65287 -14689 -4896.333333
2013-12-20 0.01 37420 43131 -5711 Bullish Bias
2013-12-19 -0.15 18010 22993 -4983 -332.2
2013-12-18 0.07 33897 28061 5836 833.7142857
2013-12-17 -0.09 27521 37242 -9721 -1080.111111
2013-12-16 0.03 26709 29971 -3262 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. CODI has a current value of 20.71 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $18.43 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$18.43
52 Week Range$16.20 - $19.84
1 Month Range$17.19 - $18.48
Avg Daily Volume88405.0
PE Ratio16.61
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$1.094
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding48MM
Market Capitalization$879.50MM
 
 

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