Market Read®

  • Friday, July 11 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 11, 2013 and March 15, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: ONCY)

Oncolytics Biotech


Bearish

Oncolytics Biotech Inc., a development stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of cancers. The company develops REOLYSIN, a therapeutic reovirus that is in various clinical trials for use as human cancer therapeutic. Its cancer product is a potential therapeutic for tumours possessing an activated Ras pathway. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that ONCY will move down -10.76% by March 14, 2013. The target is $3.49. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of ONCY expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Trend Line Break(2)' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Trend Line Break(2) has been detected. The target is $2.99. more
  • SEASONALITY expects the price of ONCY expected to move down to $1.94 by December 17, 2012. more
  • VALUATION ONCY has a current calculated value of $0.36 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $1.66.

Predictive Range December 11, 2012 - March 15, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$3.31 - $2.81

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • ONCY, currently trading around 1.66 expected to hit $3.49.
  • The price of ONCY tends to move down before earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 6 earnings releases, ONCY has moved down 67% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Oncolytics Biotech (NASDAQ: ONCY) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. ONCY has demonstrated Trend Line Break(2) strategy ACT EOD (+1) with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of ONCY expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD (+1)' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Trend Line Break(2) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that ONCY will move down in the coming weeks.

Seasonality

 

Predicts probability and percentage of stock movements based on seasonal factors.

Oncolytics Biotech (NASDAQ: ONCY) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish trends that appear around this time of the year. By identifying stocks that are poised to go up or down based on seasonal tendencies, traders can increase their odds of making money. ONCY, currently trading at 1.66 expected to hit $1.94 by December 17, 2012.

  • The price of ONCY expected to move down to $1.94 by December 17, 2012.
  • Expected loss of -9.56% from price at time of prediction (2.144).
  • This pattern has held 10.0 of the last 11.0 seasonal periods. (90.91%)

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for ONCY is 3.55.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2013-12-31 1045397 1730550.1938 1.6554
2013-11-30 2981455 6505534.81 2.182
2013-10-31 1648382 4586293.2386 2.7823
2013-09-30 4065935 11668826.8565 2.8699
2013-08-31 1030464 2886947.9424 2.8016
2013-07-31 873441 2451486.8547 2.8067
2013-06-30 1288464 3260458.152 2.5305
2013-05-31 1676652 4680877.0536 2.7918
2013-04-30 1349285 4044211.9305 2.9973
2013-03-31 719384 2391807.9232 3.3248
2013-02-28 5636481 22863257.8803 4.0563
2013-01-31 1095401 4104686.6272 3.7472
2012-12-31 4134530 12065385.446 2.9182
2012-11-30 455643 909372.2994 1.9958
2012-10-31 114096 257777.0928 2.2593
2012-09-30 1233700 3154570.9 2.557
2012-08-31 1101723 3179352.2334 2.8858
2012-07-31 793713 2810061.5052 3.5404
2012-06-30 756521 2641393.0715 3.4915
2012-05-31 818185 2948820.5585 3.6041

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused ONCY's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused ONCY's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2013-12-16 -0.07 268067 297226 -29159 -4165.571429
2013-12-13 0.06 274842 236086 38756 6459.333333
2013-12-12 -0.12 118059 411945 -293886 -24490.5
2013-12-11 0.01 149181 325260 -176079 Bullish Bias
2013-12-10 -0.01 140695 287749 -147054 -147054
2013-12-09 -0.04 161016 147409 13607 Bearish Bias
2013-12-06 0.07 193350 239162 -45812 Bullish Bias
2013-12-05 -0.08 191074 224602 -33528 -4191
2013-12-04 -0.02 166098 238750 -72652 -36326
2013-12-03 -0.01 140078 159130 -19052 -19052
2013-12-02 -0.11 187762 295277 -107515 -9774.090909
2013-11-29 -0.02 175385 163478 11907 Bearish Bias
2013-11-27 0.19 529361 371088 158273 8330.157895
2013-11-26 0.0 344236 298882 45354 Bearish Bias
2013-11-25 -0.08 511869 520149 -8280 -1035
2013-11-22 -0.11 1244102 1709005 -464903 -42263.90909
2013-11-21 -0.62 2591441 3404127 -812686 -13107.83871
2013-11-20 0.01 142418 412864 -270446 Bullish Bias
2013-11-19 0.18 330748 195453 135295 7516.388889
2013-11-18 -0.08 143748 152463 -8715 -1089.375

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. ONCY has a current value of 0.36 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $1.66 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.136 73.18 9093 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.738 22.37 7780 473 94.27%
Group Correlation 7.341 14.99 1310 87 93.77%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.459 15.21 42599 4123 91.18%
PatternScan 8.449 11.37 133502 19274 87.38%
Events 6.943 11.2 3389 543 86.19%
GATS 5.387 7.94 45083 8534 84.08%
Earnings 8.678 10.28 21689 4352 83.29%
Naked Shorts 14.518 10.83 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.501 3.63 5601 1604 77.74%

Prediction Success

 

Past success in predictions regarding Oncolytics Biotech.

  • December 18, 2013 - ONCOLYTICS BIOTECH INC (NASDAQ:ONCY), Up By 7.24% ($0.11) From $1.520 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Up Due To Bullish Conditions
  • October 08, 2013 - ONCOLYTICS BIOTECH INC (NASDAQ:ONCY), Up By 6.00% ($0.18) From $3.000 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Up Due To Bullish Conditions

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$1.66
52 Week Range$1.20 - $3.50
1 Month Range$1.24 - $1.59
Avg Daily Volume239165.0
PE Ratio0.0
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$-0.247
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding86MM
Market Capitalization$118.50MM
 
 

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