Market Read®

  • Friday, July 11 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 18, 2013 and February 14, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: KBW)

Kbw Inc


Bearish

KBW, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an investment bank specializing in the financial services industry in the United States and Europe. It provides various investment banking services, including mergers and acquisitions and other strategic advisory services, equity and fixed income securities offerings, and mutual thrift conversions; and equity and fixed income sales and trading. The company also offers research services comprising fundamental and objective analysis that identifies investment opportunities and assists investor to make investment decisions; and asset management services consisting of investment management and other advisory services to institutional clients, private high net worth clients, and various investment vehicles. It serves bank and thrift holding companies, banking and insurance companies, thrift institutions, broker-dealers, mortgage banks, asset management companies, mortgage and equity real estate investment trusts, consumer and specialty finance firms, financial processing companies, and securities exchanges. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of KBW expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Channel' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Channel has been detected. The target is $15.53. more
  • SEASONALITY expects the price of KBW expected to move down to $15.78 by February 08, 2013. more
  • INSIDER predicts that KBW will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more

Predictive Range December 10, 2012 - February 14, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$15.77 - $15.05

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Kbw Inc (NYSE: KBW) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. KBW has demonstrated Channel strategy ACT EOD (+1) with a strength of 4.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of KBW expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD (+1)' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Channel has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that KBW will move down in the coming weeks.

Seasonality

 

Predicts probability and percentage of stock movements based on seasonal factors.

Kbw Inc (NYSE: KBW) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish trends that appear around this time of the year. By identifying stocks that are poised to go up or down based on seasonal tendencies, traders can increase their odds of making money. KBW, currently trading at 0.0 expected to hit $15.78 by February 08, 2013.

  • The price of KBW expected to move down to $15.78 by February 08, 2013.
  • Expected loss of -2.62% from price at time of prediction (16.2).
  • This pattern has held 6.0 of the last 6.0 seasonal periods. (100.00%)

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Kbw Inc (NYSE: KBW) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of KBW expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, KBW is expected to fall to $13.83.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for KBW is 19.27.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2013-02-28 163880 2649742.944 16.1688
2013-01-31 886970 13740495.755 15.4915
2012-12-31 3744192 60239181.8304 16.0887
2012-11-30 4837718 83109576.381 17.1795
2012-10-31 661249 10844615.8498 16.4002
2012-09-30 1848757 31615963.2084 17.1012
2012-08-31 1965321 30571157.7513 15.5553
2012-07-31 117431 1933959.3959 16.4689
2012-06-30 1059312 17479495.4496 16.5008
2012-05-31 1184120 19086830.28 16.119
2012-04-30 1177653 19936840.9329 16.9293
2012-03-31 3171772 54755251.5676 17.2633
2012-02-29 1167505 20137709.9925 17.2485
2012-01-31 1025781 17080689.7434 16.6514
2011-12-31 910931 12976758.6536 14.2456
2011-11-30 487203 6451054.923 13.241
2011-10-31 1127006 16330880.443 14.4905
2011-09-30 1254736 16961270.3008 13.5178
2011-08-31 2929628 42099340.2856 14.3702
2011-07-31 968327 17189256.7405 17.7515

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused KBW's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused KBW's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2013-08-02 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-08-01 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-31 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-30 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-29 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-26 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-25 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-24 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-23 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-22 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-19 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-18 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-17 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-16 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-15 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-12 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-11 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-10 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-09 0.0 0 0 0 0.0
2013-07-08 0.0 0 0 0 0.0

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.136 73.18 9093 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.738 22.37 7780 473 94.27%
Group Correlation 7.341 14.99 1310 87 93.77%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.459 15.21 42599 4123 91.18%
PatternScan 8.449 11.37 133502 19274 87.38%
Events 6.943 11.2 3389 543 86.19%
GATS 5.387 7.94 45083 8534 84.08%
Earnings 8.678 10.28 21689 4352 83.29%
Naked Shorts 14.518 10.83 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.501 3.63 5601 1604 77.74%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$0.00
52 Week Range$14.47 - $19.27
1 Month Range$15.46 - $16.35
Avg Daily Volume178945.0
PE Ratio0.0
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$-0.907
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding30MM
Market Capitalization$499.20MM
 
 

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