Market Read®

  • Thursday, May 07 2015

This prediction has hit its target!

As predicted, the stock moved down from $19.67 to $18.02 (-8.38%)
between March 27, 2013 and April 16, 2013.

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 27, 2013 and June 12, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: IM)

Ingram Micro Inc.


Bearish

Ingram Micro Inc. distributes information technology (IT) products; and provides supply chain solutions, mobile device lifecycle services, and logistics solutions worldwide. The company s IT peripherals include printers, scanners, displays, projectors, monitors, panels, mass storage, and tape; large format LCD and plasma displays, enclosures, mounts, media players, and content software; mobile phones, digital cameras and video disc players, game consoles, televisions, audio, media management, and home control products; barcode/card printers, AIDC scanners and software, and wireless infrastructure products; IP video surveillance, security and fire alarm systems, and access control smart cards; processors, motherboards, hard drives, and memory products; and ink and toner supplies, paper, carrying cases, and anti-glare screens. It also provides rack, tower, and blade servers; desktops; portable personal computers and tablets; and business application, operating system, entertainment, security, storage, and virtualization software products, as well as middleware and developer software tools. The company s networking products comprise switches, hubs, routers, wireless local area networks, wireless wide area networks, network interface cards, cellular data cards, network-attached storage, and storage area networks; voice over Internet protocol, communications, modems, phone systems, and video/audio conferencing; and firewalls, virtual private networks, intrusion detection, and authentication devices and appliances. In addition, it provides integration, technical support, training, financial and credit, marketing, predictive analytics, eCommerce, reseller community hosting, managed, cloud, managed print, and professional services; and domain name management, Web hosting, and cloud infrastructure services. The company sells its products to resellers through sales representatives. Ingram Micro Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that IM will move down -2.74% by February 14, 2013. The target is $18.12. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of IM expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Trend Line Break(3)' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Trend Line Break(3) has been detected. The target is $18.02. more
  • INSIDER predicts that IM will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • INSIDER predicts that IM will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • VALUATION IM has a current calculated value of $16.76 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $25.84.

Predictive Range February 13, 2013 - June 12, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$19.34 - $18.15

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • IM, currently trading around 25.84 expected to hit $18.12.
  • The price of IM tends to move down after earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 5 earnings releases, IM has moved down 100% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. IM has demonstrated Trend Line Break(3) strategy Reversal (Stocks) DWC with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of IM expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Reversal (Stocks) DWC' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Trend Line Break(3) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that IM will move down in the coming weeks.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of IM expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, IM is expected to fall to $18.43.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for IM is 19.25.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-03-31 364622 9142860.1878 25.0749
2015-02-28 2428047 62785653.3495 25.8585
2015-01-31 1330114 34591077.6954 26.0061
2014-12-31 505180 13778733.982 27.2749
2014-11-30 3012240 81507298.488 27.0587
2014-10-31 3779212 90782341.058 24.0215
2014-09-30 2817424 76729725.216 27.234
2014-08-31 2563114 72428988.0348 28.2582
2014-07-31 4557629 134556704.019 29.5234
2014-06-30 3759111 106673796.491 28.3774
2014-05-31 3721151 99370732.6493 26.7043
2014-04-30 3776490 113543948.34 30.066
2014-03-31 2610093 76172171.0841 29.1837
2014-02-28 1173691 28016591.0155 23.8705
2014-01-31 3474687 86045411.5245 24.7635
2013-12-31 1631126 37990718.7786 23.2911
2013-11-30 1300514 30577164.9624 23.5116
2013-10-31 530598 12390259.197 23.3515
2013-09-30 3673889 82858688.1726 22.5534
2013-08-31 3645104 84005066.784 23.046

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused IM's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused IM's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-03-19 -0.55 449168 609335 -160167 -2912.127273
2015-03-18 0.1 265489 407315 -141826 Bullish Bias
2015-03-17 -0.15 541185 487983 53202 Bearish Bias
2015-03-16 0.51 560049 392065 167984 3293.803922
2015-03-13 -0.15 547275 396142 151133 Bearish Bias
2015-03-12 0.0 855131 825749 29382 Bearish Bias
2015-03-11 -0.22 323268 205501 117767 Bearish Bias
2015-03-10 -0.59 253378 378995 -125617 -2129.101695
2015-03-09 -0.13 202562 291972 -89410 -6877.692308
2015-03-06 -0.41 401112 276620 124492 Bearish Bias
2015-03-05 0.01 289391 325554 -36163 Bullish Bias
2015-03-04 -0.21 272185 417498 -145313 -6919.666667
2015-03-03 -0.16 549627 532523 17104 Bearish Bias
2015-03-02 0.42 793887 473720 320167 7623.02381
2015-02-27 -2.52 1597049 1452381 144668 Bearish Bias
2015-02-26 0.09 295508 299043 -3535 Bullish Bias
2015-02-25 0.47 218972 151152 67820 1442.978723
2015-02-24 0.02 152731 229434 -76703 Bullish Bias
2015-02-23 -0.33 193697 141179 52518 Bearish Bias
2015-02-20 -0.03 296514 209051 87463 Bearish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. IM has a current value of 16.76 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $25.84 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.951 79.0 11780 550 95.54%
SqueezeTrigger 12.604 22.04 9290 602 93.91%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.309 15.2 50305 4749 91.37%
Group Correlation 6.543 14.9 4442 496 89.96%
PatternScan 8.518 11.48 182765 26996 87.13%
Events 6.889 11.28 4073 628 86.64%
Earnings 8.506 10.24 23871 4821 83.20%
GATS 5.38 7.86 62445 12891 82.89%
Naked Shorts 13.882 10.95 2675 694 79.40%
Friction Factor 7.13 3.63 6942 1982 77.79%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$25.84
52 Week Range$20.08 - $30.96
1 Month Range$27.80 - $30.21
Avg Daily Volume1273615.0
PE Ratio15.94
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$1.823
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding155MM
Market Capitalization$4504.00MM
 
 

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