Market Read®

  • Friday, July 11 2014

This prediction has hit its target!

As predicted, the stock moved down from $19.67 to $18.02 (-8.38%)
between March 27, 2013 and April 16, 2013.

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 27, 2013 and June 12, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: IM)

Ingram Micro Inc.


Bearish

Ingram Micro Inc. distributes information technology (IT) products; and provides supply chain solutions, mobile device lifecycle services, and logistics solutions worldwide. The company s IT peripherals include printers, scanners, displays, projectors, monitors, panels, mass storage, and tape; large format LCD and plasma displays, enclosures, mounts, media players, and content software; mobile phones, digital cameras and video disc players, game consoles, televisions, audio, media management, and home control products; barcode/card printers, AIDC scanners and software, and wireless infrastructure products; IP video surveillance, security and fire alarm systems, and access control smart cards; processors, motherboards, hard drives, and memory products; and ink and toner supplies, paper, carrying cases, and anti-glare screens. It also provides rack, tower, and blade servers; desktops; portable personal computers and tablets; and business application, operating system, entertainment, security, storage, and virtualization software products, as well as middleware and developer software tools. The company s networking products comprise switches, hubs, routers, wireless local area networks, wireless wide area networks, network interface cards, cellular data cards, network-attached storage, and storage area networks; voice over Internet protocol, communications, modems, phone systems, and video/audio conferencing; and firewalls, virtual private networks, intrusion detection, and authentication devices and appliances. In addition, it provides integration, technical support, training, financial and credit, marketing, predictive analytics, eCommerce, reseller community hosting, managed, cloud, managed print, and professional services; and domain name management, Web hosting, and cloud infrastructure services. The company sells its products to resellers through sales representatives. Ingram Micro Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that IM will move down -2.74% by February 14, 2013. The target is $18.12. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of IM expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Trend Line Break(3)' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Trend Line Break(3) has been detected. The target is $18.02. more
  • INSIDER predicts that IM will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • INSIDER predicts that IM will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • VALUATION IM has a current calculated value of $16.76 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $29.35.

Predictive Range February 13, 2013 - June 12, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$19.34 - $18.15

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • IM, currently trading around 29.35 expected to hit $18.12.
  • The price of IM tends to move down after earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 5 earnings releases, IM has moved down 100% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. IM has demonstrated Trend Line Break(3) strategy Reversal (Stocks) DWC with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of IM expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Reversal (Stocks) DWC' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Trend Line Break(3) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that IM will move down in the coming weeks.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of IM expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, IM is expected to fall to $18.43.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for IM is 18.40.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-04-30 3776490 113543948.34 30.066
2014-03-31 2610093 76172171.0841 29.1837
2014-02-28 1173691 28016591.0155 23.8705
2014-01-31 3474687 86045411.5245 24.7635
2013-12-31 1631126 37990718.7786 23.2911
2013-11-30 1300514 30577164.9624 23.5116
2013-10-31 530598 12390259.197 23.3515
2013-09-30 3673889 82858688.1726 22.5534
2013-08-31 3645104 84005066.784 23.046
2013-07-31 4292936 91144182.8032 21.2312
2013-06-30 3087473 58223257.0867 18.8579
2013-05-31 3643105 66442584.6795 18.2379
2013-04-30 5631302 106401761.899 18.8947
2013-03-31 1537552 29685208.9536 19.3068
2013-02-28 2474887 47163426.5816 19.0568
2013-01-31 2237026 39778125.2242 17.7817
2012-12-31 2497463 41688901.1275 16.6925
2012-11-30 4756497 74957160.5733 15.7589
2012-10-31 5529128 84057674.2456 15.2027
2012-09-30 3675393 58207198.941 15.837

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused IM's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused IM's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-04-22 0.36 430666 577694 -147028 Bullish Bias
2014-04-21 -0.02 249000 378107 -129107 -64553.5
2014-04-17 -0.28 278065 389769 -111704 -3989.428571
2014-04-16 0.44 470902 397387 73515 1670.795455
2014-04-15 0.52 468458 455756 12702 244.2692308
2014-04-14 0.11 507911 294131 213780 19434.54545
2014-04-11 0.03 411314 435881 -24567 Bullish Bias
2014-04-10 -0.35 529844 547266 -17422 -497.7714286
2014-04-09 0.7 493417 560110 -66693 Bullish Bias
2014-04-08 0.4 430535 423431 7104 177.6
2014-04-07 0.22 742751 882944 -140193 Bullish Bias
2014-04-04 0.08 889574 997787 -108213 Bullish Bias
2014-04-03 -0.7 635404 522599 112805 Bearish Bias
2014-04-02 0.2 322619 442643 -120024 Bullish Bias
2014-04-01 0.03 501054 411672 89382 29794
2014-03-31 0.77 370974 287851 83123 1079.519481
2014-03-28 0.26 208915 246964 -38049 Bullish Bias
2014-03-27 0.04 181485 246919 -65434 Bullish Bias
2014-03-26 -0.36 196699 240753 -44054 -1223.722222
2014-03-25 0.13 218701 331016 -112315 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. IM has a current value of 16.76 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $29.35 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.136 73.18 9093 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.738 22.37 7780 473 94.27%
Group Correlation 7.341 14.99 1310 87 93.77%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.459 15.21 42599 4123 91.18%
PatternScan 8.449 11.37 133502 19274 87.38%
Events 6.943 11.2 3389 543 86.19%
GATS 5.387 7.94 45083 8534 84.08%
Earnings 8.678 10.28 21689 4352 83.29%
Naked Shorts 14.518 10.83 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.501 3.63 5601 1604 77.74%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$29.35
52 Week Range$19.78 - $30.96
1 Month Range$27.52 - $29.96
Avg Daily Volume1257925.0
PE Ratio16.18
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$1.823
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding155MM
Market Capitalization$4634.00MM
 
 

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