Market Read®

  • Sunday, December 04 2016

This prediction has hit its target!

As predicted, the stock moved down from $19.67 to $18.02 (-8.38%)
between March 27, 2013 and April 16, 2013.

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 27, 2013 and June 12, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: IM)

Ingram Micro Inc.


Bearish

Ingram Micro Inc. distributes information technology (IT) products; and provides supply chain and mobile device lifecycle services worldwide. The company offers IT peripherals, such as printers and scanners; digital signage products; CE products; AIDC/POS products; physical security products; components; and supplies and accessories. It also provides systems, including rack servers, tower and blade servers, desktops, portable personal computers, and tablets; and software products comprising business application, operating system, entertainment, security, storage, and virtualization software products, as well as middleware and developer software tools. In addition, the company offers networking hardware, such as switches, hubs, routers, wireless local area networks, wireless wide area networks, network interface cards, cellular data cards, network-attached storage, and storage area networks; communication products that consist of voice over Internet protocol, communications, modems, phone systems, and video/audio conferencing; and network security hardware, including firewalls, virtual private networks, intrusion detection, and authentication devices and appliances. Further, it provides mobile handsets, tablets, navigation devices, aircards, SIM cards, flash memory, and other mobile companion products; multi-vendor solutions; integration, marketing, financing, training and enablement, technical support, and inventory management services; and electronic commerce tools. The company sells its products to resellers of IT products and services through sales representatives. Ingram Micro Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that IM will move down -2.74% by February 14, 2013. The target is $18.12. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of IM expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Trend Line Break(3)' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Trend Line Break(3) has been detected. The target is $18.02. more
  • INSIDER predicts that IM will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • INSIDER predicts that IM will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more
  • VALUATION IM has a current calculated value of $16.76 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $38.87.

Predictive Range February 13, 2013 - June 12, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$19.34 - $18.15

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • IM, currently trading around 38.87 expected to hit $18.12.
  • The price of IM tends to move down after earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 5 earnings releases, IM has moved down 100% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. IM has demonstrated Trend Line Break(3) strategy Reversal (Stocks) DWC with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of IM expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Reversal (Stocks) DWC' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Trend Line Break(3) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that IM will move down in the coming weeks.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

Ingram Micro Inc. (NYSE: IM) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of IM expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, IM is expected to fall to $18.43.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for IM is 22.10.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2016-10-31 1227774 44012260.1328 35.8472
2016-09-30 5176398 181233458.577 35.0115
2016-08-31 5947878 205206549.302 34.5008
2016-07-31 7352940 255310988.562 34.7223
2016-06-30 8693310 303234823.434 34.8814
2016-05-31 12387910 420683513.272 33.9592
2016-04-30 11538709 408989540.505 35.445
2016-03-31 12951424 468708149.133 36.1897
2016-02-29 28204354 954917633.813 33.8571
2016-01-31 12500659 348272109.938 27.8603
2015-12-31 12408484 386597486.656 31.1559
2015-11-30 12365221 381339706.074 30.8397
2015-10-31 901436 25231644.358 27.9905
2015-09-30 520333 13783569.1367 26.4899
2015-08-31 362723 9660220.2975 26.6325
2015-07-31 2851735 71191282.887 24.9642
2015-06-30 2318209 61783978.9844 26.6516
2015-05-31 2397658 63130095.3742 26.3299
2015-04-30 3325303 84227929.8082 25.3294
2015-03-31 364622 9142860.1878 25.0749

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused IM's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused IM's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2016-10-31 0.7 1177000 1248055 -71055 Bullish Bias
2016-10-28 0.61 1387174 1349926 37248 610.6229508
2016-10-27 0.0 443845 332533 111312 Bearish Bias
2016-10-26 -0.11 325426 439380 -113954 -10359.45455
2016-10-25 0.01 493153 393928 99225 99225
2016-10-24 0.02 218576 323668 -105092 Bullish Bias
2016-10-21 0.06 140384 123275 17109 2851.5
2016-10-20 -0.14 195951 166278 29673 Bearish Bias
2016-10-19 -0.08 136403 169253 -32850 -4106.25
2016-10-18 0.1 237728 301547 -63819 Bullish Bias
2016-10-17 -0.06 148773 268283 -119510 -19918.33333
2016-10-14 0.06 301512 303534 -2022 Bullish Bias
2016-10-13 -0.07 239763 347510 -107747 -15392.42857
2016-10-12 -0.01 181683 292551 -110868 -110868
2016-10-11 -0.12 307706 237450 70256 Bearish Bias
2016-10-10 0.01 156060 104293 51767 51767
2016-10-07 0.07 285798 200077 85721 12245.85714
2016-10-06 0.11 165198 210408 -45210 Bullish Bias
2016-10-05 0.28 236409 160697 75712 2704
2016-10-04 0.13 505934 525147 -19213 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. IM has a current value of 16.76 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $38.87 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 25.483 1.43 9802 205 97.95%
SqueezeTrigger 33.1 0.97 4854 222 95.63%
Seasonality 17.036 1.22 20080 1178 94.46%
Group Correlation 11.122 1.43 10508 732 93.49%
Events 19.564 1.15 1455 146 90.88%
PatternScan 33.673 1.41 120222 12684 90.46%
GATS 21.358 1.41 48568 8155 85.62%
Naked Shorts 47.39 1.5 1096 226 82.90%
Friction Factor 528.887 0.69 2545 616 80.51%
Earnings 15.327 1.02 2519 620 80.25%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$38.87
52 Week Range$20.08 - $30.96
1 Month Range$27.80 - $30.21
Avg Daily Volume1273615.0
PE Ratio15.94
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2016(E)$1.823
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding155MM
Market Capitalization$4504.00MM
 
 

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