Market Read®

  • Tuesday, July 07 2015

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 18, 2013 and March 26, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: MRK)

Merck & Company


Bearish

Merck & Co., Inc. provides health care solutions worldwide. The company offer therapeutic and preventive agents to treat cardiovascular, type 2 diabetes, asthma, nasal allergy symptoms, allergic rhinitis, chronic hepatitis C virus, HIV-1 infection, fungal infections, intra-abdominal infections, hypertension, arthritis and pain, inflammatory, osteoporosis, male pattern hair loss, and fertility diseases. It also offers neuromuscular blocking agents for use in surgery; anti-bacterial products for skin and skin structure infections; antidepressants; ophthalmic and cholesterol modification products; non-sedating antihistamine; and vaginal contraceptive implants. In addition, the company provides products to prevent chemotherapy-induced and post-operative nausea and vomiting; to treat brain tumors and melanoma; to prevent diseases caused by human papillomavirus, as well as vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, chickenpox, shingles, rotavirus gastroenteritis, and pneumococcal diseases. Further, it offers animal health products, and pneumonia in cattle, horses, and swine; vaccines for poultry; parasiticide for sea lice in salmon; and antibiotics for, and vaccines against bacterial and viral disease in fish. Additionally, the company provides companion animal products, such as diabetes mellitus treatment drugs and vaccines for dogs and cats; ointments for acute and chronic otitis; anthelmintic products; chewable tablets to kill fleas and ticks in dogs; and products for protection against bites from fleas, ticks, mosquitoes, and sandflies. The company serves drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government entities and agencies, physicians, physician distributors, veterinarians, distributors, and animal producers, as well as managed health care providers. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. Merck & Co. Inc formerly operated as a subsidiary of Merck KGaA.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of MRK expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Volume Climax' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Volume Climax has been detected. The target is $42.93. more
  • FRICTION FACTOR detects negative price friction, allowing the price to more easily move down to $42.88 by March 09, 2013. more
  • VALUATION MRK has a current calculated value of $38.82 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $57.44.

Predictive Range March 05, 2013 - March 26, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$43.52 - $42.91

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Merck & Company (NYSE: MRK) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. MRK has demonstrated Volume Climax strategy ACT EOD with a strength of 2.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of MRK expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Volume Climax has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that MRK will move down in the coming weeks.

Friction Factor

 

Uses stock price and transaction volume to help time buying and selling decisions.

Merck & Company (NYSE: MRK) is expected to go lower The Friction Factor displays how many more shares of buying than selling are required to move a stock higher by one cent or how many more shares of selling than buying moves a stock lower by 1 cent.

  • The price of MRK expected to move down.
  • Negative price friction detected in the volume of the stock indicates the price should move to $42.88 by March 09, 2013.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for MRK is 39.98.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-06-30 29826817 1758484736.46 58.9565
2015-05-31 31206492 1873444299.43 60.0338
2015-04-30 43705140 2530422713.66 57.8976
2015-03-31 27194735 1565736867.62 57.575
2015-02-28 26999383 1593009495.95 59.0017
2015-01-31 24436804 1481090253.64 60.609
2014-12-31 35876171 2127643496.39 59.3052
2014-11-30 31544689 1871618951.15 59.3323
2014-10-31 1048242 61841036.79 58.995
2014-09-30 27631163 1662265898.03 60.1591
2014-08-31 25208960 1453722575.42 57.6669
2014-07-31 31396510 1828733680.06 58.2464
2014-06-30 29684936 1728728964.4 58.2359
2014-05-31 27770573 1582806024.59 56.9958
2014-04-30 38387155 2175611203.2 56.6755
2014-03-31 36551130 2052316708.6 56.1492
2014-02-28 51911155 2844897409.7 54.8032
2014-01-31 73567102 3819478871.77 51.9183
2013-12-31 36135660 1776768720.8 49.1694
2013-11-30 56398420 2679212581.94 47.5051

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused MRK's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused MRK's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-06-25 -0.34 2813130 3700402 -887272 -26096.23529
2015-06-24 -0.79 1926793 2981403 -1054610 -13349.49367
2015-06-23 0.2 2612829 2408574 204255 10212.75
2015-06-22 1.06 2615277 2054697 560580 5288.490566
2015-06-19 -0.55 2193876 4298946 -2105070 -38274
2015-06-18 0.76 2177481 1575937 601544 7915.052632
2015-06-17 0.27 2936995 1792246 1144749 42398.11111
2015-06-16 0.11 2334057 1817621 516436 46948.72727
2015-06-15 -0.63 2221152 3067186 -846034 -13429.11111
2015-06-12 -0.82 5122746 4308253 814493 Bearish Bias
2015-06-11 -0.7 3876429 4289453 -413024 -5900.342857
2015-06-10 0.61 4529027 2280388 2248639 36862.93443
2015-06-09 0.17 2269206 1546427 722779 42516.41176
2015-06-08 0.01 2207564 3209210 -1001646 Bullish Bias
2015-06-05 -0.39 3120795 3570501 -449706 -11530.92308
2015-06-04 -0.89 2823407 3552255 -728848 -8189.303371
2015-06-03 0.15 2488689 2709263 -220574 Bullish Bias
2015-06-02 -0.61 3294047 2254431 1039616 Bearish Bias
2015-06-01 -0.51 3215317 4001074 -785757 -15407
2015-05-29 1.19 5436730 7036533 -1599803 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. MRK has a current value of 38.82 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $57.44 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.877 79.24 12440 584 95.52%
SqueezeTrigger 12.534 21.87 9555 639 93.73%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.273 15.23 51785 4841 91.45%
Group Correlation 6.349 14.52 5306 674 88.73%
PatternScan 8.464 11.47 189272 27953 87.13%
Events 6.831 11.26 4181 639 86.74%
Earnings 8.51 10.35 24115 4842 83.28%
GATS 5.366 7.86 65829 13621 82.86%
Naked Shorts 13.812 10.96 2727 704 79.48%
Friction Factor 7.019 3.64 7196 2061 77.74%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$57.44
52 Week Range$44.62 - $59.84
1 Month Range$57.48 - $59.65
Avg Daily Volume8567149.0
PE Ratio38.64
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$1.516
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding2922MM
Market Capitalization$170800.00MM
 
 

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