Market Read®

  • Saturday, July 12 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 18, 2013 and March 26, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: MRK)

Merck & Company


Bearish

Merck & Co., Inc. provides various health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products worldwide. It offers human health pharmaceutical products, such as therapeutic and preventive agents for the treatment of human disorders in the areas of cardiovascular, diabetes and obesity, respiratory, women's health and endocrine, inflammatory and infectious diseases, oncology, ophthalmology, and others. The company also provides vaccines, including preventive pediatric, adolescent, and adult vaccines. In addition, it discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets animal health products comprising vaccines, antibiotics, and anti-inflammatory drugs for respiratory diseases, as well as products for the treatment of fertility disorders. Further, the company manufactures and sells over-the-counter products consisting of non-drowsy antihistamines; decongestant-free cold/flu medicine for people with high blood pressure; nasal decongestant spray; and products for occasional constipation and frequent heartburn. Additionally, it offers foot care products, including topical antifungal, and foot and sneaker odor/wetness products; and sun care products, such as sun care lotions, sprays, and dry oils. The company serves drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government agencies, physicians, physician distributors, veterinarians, animal producers, food chain and mass merchandiser outlets, club stores, and specialty channels, as well as managed health care providers, such as health maintenance organizations, pharmacy benefit managers, and other institutions. It has collaborations with Sanofi Pasteur S.A., Abide Therapeutics, Inc., and Samsung Bioepis Co., Ltd.; collaboration and license agreement with Luminex Corporation; and strategic collaboration agreements with Amgen Inc., Incyte Corporation, and Pfizer Inc. The company was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of MRK expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Volume Climax' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Volume Climax has been detected. The target is $42.93. more
  • FRICTION FACTOR detects negative price friction, allowing the price to more easily move down to $42.88 by March 09, 2013. more
  • VALUATION MRK has a current calculated value of $38.82 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $58.61.

Predictive Range March 05, 2013 - March 26, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$43.52 - $42.91

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Merck & Company (NYSE: MRK) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. MRK has demonstrated Volume Climax strategy ACT EOD with a strength of 2.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of MRK expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Volume Climax has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that MRK will move down in the coming weeks.

Friction Factor

 

Uses stock price and transaction volume to help time buying and selling decisions.

Merck & Company (NYSE: MRK) is expected to go lower The Friction Factor displays how many more shares of buying than selling are required to move a stock higher by one cent or how many more shares of selling than buying moves a stock lower by 1 cent.

  • The price of MRK expected to move down.
  • Negative price friction detected in the volume of the stock indicates the price should move to $42.88 by March 09, 2013.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for MRK is 36.12.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2013-04-30 63954813 2974359279.15 46.5072
2013-03-31 44992274 1969469305.94 43.7735
2013-02-28 73667762 3086693961.35 41.9002
2013-01-31 60615943 2587561251.6 42.6878
2012-12-31 43698674 1891387857.4 43.2825
2012-11-30 42011319 1863441462.17 44.3557
2012-10-31 46439810 2149875276.18 46.2938
2012-09-30 41817276 1858752827.83 44.4494
2012-08-31 15472008 683363007.742 44.1677
2012-07-31 67896612 2912723916.83 42.8994
2012-06-30 46968373 1812237097.51 38.5842
2012-05-31 9926652 388480518.685 39.1351
2012-04-30 15098142 583881386.681 38.6724
2012-03-31 70053134 2662663580.83 38.0092
2012-02-29 60270760 2311763351.79 38.3563
2012-01-31 74303123 2870047289.62 38.6262
2011-12-31 91432825 3299316916.99 36.0846
2011-11-30 36877779 1265907207.51 34.3271
2011-10-31 98336029 3218587397.18 32.7305
2011-09-30 101413136 3254611208.39 32.0926

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused MRK's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused MRK's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2013-04-30 -0.55 5619974 7328837 -1708863 -31070.23636
2013-04-29 0.01 3927580 3464218 463362 463362
2013-04-26 0.65 2768675 3900031 -1131356 Bullish Bias
2013-04-25 -0.59 4131892 5047507 -915615 -15518.89831
2013-04-24 -0.66 5099502 4579882 519620 Bearish Bias
2013-04-23 0.52 6025719 5068657 957062 18405.03846
2013-04-22 0.17 4294200 4400394 -106194 Bullish Bias
2013-04-19 0.92 4455342 2577147 1878195 20415.16304
2013-04-18 -0.2 3055952 3656355 -600403 -30020.15
2013-04-17 -0.2 2822311 3726715 -904404 -45220.2
2013-04-16 0.5 2604762 3723582 -1118820 Bullish Bias
2013-04-12 -0.1 4114880 2725795 1389085 Bearish Bias
2013-04-11 0.37 5040619 5938383 -897764 Bullish Bias
2013-04-10 1.33 4995259 6309350 -1314091 Bullish Bias
2013-04-09 0.3 4141217 2934158 1207059 40235.3
2013-04-08 0.35 3761170 2767271 993899 28397.11429
2013-04-05 -0.19 5034868 3324794 1710074 Bearish Bias
2013-04-04 -0.04 4891114 4152159 738955 Bearish Bias
2013-04-03 0.41 8195019 9097673 -902654 Bullish Bias
2013-04-02 0.6 5085718 3643430 1442288 24038.13333

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. MRK has a current value of 38.82 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $58.61 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$58.61
52 Week Range$44.62 - $59.84
1 Month Range$57.48 - $59.65
Avg Daily Volume8651600.0
PE Ratio38.95
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$1.516
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding2922MM
Market Capitalization$173000.00MM
 
 

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