Market Read®

  • Thursday, May 07 2015

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 18, 2013 and April 18, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: FNFG)

First
Niagara
Financial Group Inc.


Bearish

First Niagara Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for First Niagara Bank, N.A. that provides retail and commercial banking, and other financial services to individuals, families, and businesses. The company s deposit products include savings and money market, and certificate of deposit accounts, as well as municipal deposits. Its loan portfolio include commercial business loans; commercial real estate and multi-family lending products; residential real estate lending products; home equity lending products; indirect automobile lending products; credit cards; and consumer loans, including personal secured and unsecured loans, and overdraft lines of credit. The company also offers wealth management services to manage client funds utilizing various third party investment vehicles comprising separately managed accounts, bonds, exchange traded funds, and mutual funds, as well as provides retirement planning, education funding, and wealth protection products and services, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, annuities, life insurance, long term care insurance, and advisory products. In addition, it sells insurance products comprising business and personal insurance, surety bonds, life, disability, and long-term care coverage products; and offers risk management advisory services, such as alternative risk and self-insurance, claims investigation and adjusting, and third party administration of self-insured workers compensation plans, as well as provides treasury management services, such as account reconciliation, remote deposit capture, ACH payments, and cash vault services. As of January 24, 2014, the company operated 420 branches in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. First Niagara Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that FNFG will move down -3.34% by April 18, 2013. The target is $8.36. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of FNFG expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Resistance Break(1)' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Resistance Break(1) has been detected. The target is $8.12. more
  • VALUATION FNFG has a current calculated value of $8.79 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $8.84.

Predictive Range March 15, 2013 - April 18, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$8.60 - $8.24

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • FNFG, currently trading around 8.84 expected to hit $8.36.
  • The price of FNFG tends to move down before earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 5 earnings releases, FNFG has moved down 100% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FNFG) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. FNFG has demonstrated Resistance Break(1) strategy ACT EOD with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of FNFG expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Resistance Break(1) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that FNFG will move down in the coming weeks.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for FNFG is 10.34.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-04-30 2606551 22949117.6244 8.8044
2015-03-31 13737742 122062585.218 8.8852
2015-02-28 13379808 116132719.498 8.6797
2015-01-31 12873973 102236081.785 7.9413
2014-12-31 18787086 154450512.715 8.2211
2014-11-30 22785422 178712900.373 7.8433
2014-10-31 29857506 234912885.707 7.8678
2014-09-30 17449443 152321422.78 8.7293
2014-08-31 12314467 104938961.987 8.5216
2014-07-31 3810956 33564994.97 8.8075
2014-06-30 12664613 110610197.019 8.7338
2014-05-31 13214629 114206109.67 8.6424
2014-04-30 17965204 164827153.659 9.1748
2014-03-31 17235180 159022111.788 9.2266
2014-02-28 23726894 205531846.586 8.6624
2014-01-31 10649653 109608358.607 10.2922
2013-12-31 15910650 169491381.255 10.6527
2013-11-30 3010100 33158659.58 11.0158
2013-10-31 23112621 250570858.047 10.8413
2013-09-30 21457045 218349035.625 10.1761

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused FNFG's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused FNFG's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-04-15 0.1 1087264 891772 195492 19549.2
2015-04-14 -0.06 806295 734908 71387 Bearish Bias
2015-04-13 0.09 828958 478003 350955 38995
2015-04-10 0.0 687165 534490 152675 Bearish Bias
2015-04-09 -0.01 849781 1026832 -177051 -177051
2015-04-08 -0.02 563410 833227 -269817 -134908.5
2015-04-07 0.09 859332 1332412 -473080 Bullish Bias
2015-04-06 0.06 1036846 1250550 -213704 Bullish Bias
2015-04-02 0.1 635237 638889 -3652 Bullish Bias
2015-04-01 -0.09 1162819 1010847 151972 Bearish Bias
2015-03-31 -0.11 1122887 1106898 15989 Bearish Bias
2015-03-30 0.16 751513 581930 169583 10598.9375
2015-03-27 -0.05 776060 704482 71578 Bearish Bias
2015-03-26 -0.08 889495 1019848 -130353 -16294.125
2015-03-25 -0.1 505022 634674 -129652 -12965.2
2015-03-24 0.03 955122 531732 423390 141130
2015-03-23 0.0 824898 761440 63458 Bearish Bias
2015-03-20 0.08 2238610 3651029 -1412419 Bullish Bias
2015-03-19 -0.12 1874490 2090753 -216263 -18021.91667
2015-03-18 -0.22 2171748 2014418 157330 Bearish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. FNFG has a current value of 8.79 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $8.84 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.951 79.0 11780 550 95.54%
SqueezeTrigger 12.604 22.04 9290 602 93.91%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.309 15.2 50305 4749 91.37%
Group Correlation 6.543 14.9 4442 496 89.96%
PatternScan 8.518 11.48 182765 26996 87.13%
Events 6.889 11.28 4073 628 86.64%
Earnings 8.506 10.24 23871 4821 83.20%
GATS 5.38 7.86 62445 12891 82.89%
Naked Shorts 13.882 10.95 2675 694 79.40%
Friction Factor 7.13 3.63 6942 1982 77.79%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$8.84
52 Week Range$8.19 - $11.34
1 Month Range$8.50 - $9.03
Avg Daily Volume3019615.0
PE Ratio11.87
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$0.73
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding350MM
Market Capitalization$3024.00MM
 
 

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