Market Read®

  • Sunday, July 13 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between April 04, 2013 and February 27, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: ELY)

Callaway Golf Company


Bearish

Callaway Golf Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells golf clubs and golf balls. It operates in two segments, Golf Clubs and Golf Balls. The company s golf clubs include drivers, fairway woods, hybrids, irons, wedges, and putters. It also designs and sells golf accessories, such as golf bags, golf gloves, headwear, towels, umbrellas, and travel gear. The company offers its products under the Callaway Golf and Odyssey brand names. In addition, Callaway Golf Company licenses its trademarks and service marks for golf apparel and footwear, rangefinders, and practice aids. The company sells its products directly to golf retailers, sporting goods retailers, and mass merchants; and to third-party distributors in the United States, as well as in approximately 100 countries worldwide. It also sells pre-owned golf products through its Website callawaygolfpreowned.com; and Callaway Golf and Odyssey products directly to consumers online through its Websites, shop.callawaygolf.com and odysseygolf.com. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that ELY will move down -4.96% by February 01, 2013. The target is $6.18. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of ELY expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Resistance Break(1)' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Resistance Break(1) has been detected. The target is $6.45. more
  • VALUATION ELY has a current calculated value of $4.88 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $8.63.

Predictive Range January 30, 2013 - February 27, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$6.81 - $6.31

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • ELY, currently trading around 8.63 expected to hit $6.18.
  • The price of ELY tends to move down after earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 13 earnings releases, ELY has moved down 85% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Callaway Golf Company (NYSE: ELY) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. ELY has demonstrated Resistance Break(1) strategy ACT EOD with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of ELY expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Resistance Break(1) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that ELY will move down in the coming weeks.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for ELY is 7.33.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-04-30 3000775 29186137.805 9.7262
2014-03-31 6196847 58671127.7113 9.4679
2014-02-28 3642719 29907815.8057 8.2103
2014-01-31 5782467 49423901.9424 8.5472
2013-12-31 1258783 9827570.6376 7.8072
2013-11-30 1899068 15706621.7076 8.2707
2013-10-31 5766625 46304845.425 8.0298
2013-09-30 2225707 16010178.1631 7.1933
2013-08-31 3851634 27360852.4458 7.1037
2013-07-31 4385319 30489368.8794 6.9526
2013-06-30 3384556 22728308.9068 6.7153
2013-05-31 3005347 19959411.0311 6.6413
2013-04-30 646400 4335146.24 6.7066
2013-03-31 2046813 13569960.8274 6.6298
2013-02-28 3044969 21066313.5296 6.9184
2013-01-31 424317 2767989.5178 6.5234
2012-12-31 987719 6437557.3544 6.5176
2012-11-30 3509114 21002749.1128 5.9852
2012-10-31 3427907 21742185.7289 6.3427
2012-09-30 4230200 25329591.56 5.9878

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused ELY's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused ELY's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-04-29 0.04 597902 597206 696 174
2014-04-28 -0.04 379524 428423 -48899 -12224.75
2014-04-25 -0.26 706137 515746 190391 Bearish Bias
2014-04-24 -0.78 1595340 1228604 366736 Bearish Bias
2014-04-23 0.35 363618 350568 13050 372.8571429
2014-04-22 0.2 362856 292976 69880 3494
2014-04-21 -0.02 227630 184990 42640 Bearish Bias
2014-04-17 0.14 336482 359766 -23284 Bullish Bias
2014-04-16 -0.05 227711 235076 -7365 -1473
2014-04-15 -0.08 353472 258553 94919 Bearish Bias
2014-04-14 -0.04 437195 329091 108104 Bearish Bias
2014-04-11 -0.1 355600 287100 68500 Bearish Bias
2014-04-10 -0.06 198786 183956 14830 Bearish Bias
2014-04-09 -0.17 188343 315986 -127643 -7508.411765
2014-04-08 0.15 290168 262289 27879 1858.6
2014-04-07 -0.08 312542 348886 -36344 -4543
2014-04-04 -0.27 306342 392988 -86646 -3209.111111
2014-04-03 -0.24 264532 253705 10827 Bearish Bias
2014-04-02 -0.07 357773 271717 86056 Bearish Bias
2014-04-01 0.12 362222 332472 29750 2479.166667

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. ELY has a current value of 4.88 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $8.63 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$8.63
52 Week Range$6.66 - $10.35
1 Month Range$7.76 - $8.75
Avg Daily Volume600350.0
PE Ratio0.0
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$-0.109
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding77MM
Market Capitalization$669.80MM
 
 

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