Market Read®

  • Saturday, July 12 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between April 04, 2013 and February 21, 2013. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: SRDX)

Surmodics


Bearish

SurModics Inc. provides drug delivery and surface modification technologies to the healthcare industry. It offers coatings, microparticles, nanoparticles, and implants; surface modification coating technologies that impart lubricity, prohealing, and biocompatibility capabilities; and components for in vitro diagnostic test kits and specialized surfaces for cell culture and microarrays. The company primarily focuses on cardiovascular disease, ophthalmology, pharmaceutical, in vitro diagnostics, and additional clinical markets. SurModics was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of SRDX expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Resistance Break(1)' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Resistance Break(1) has been detected. The target is $22.65. more
  • VALUATION SRDX has a current calculated value of $11.44 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $20.48.

Predictive Range February 11, 2013 - February 21, 2013

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$23.82 - $22.65

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Surmodics (NASDAQ: SRDX) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. SRDX has demonstrated Resistance Break(1) strategy Reversal (Stocks) DWC with a strength of 4.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of SRDX expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Reversal (Stocks) DWC' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Resistance Break(1) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that SRDX will move down in the coming weeks.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for SRDX is 18.86.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2013-12-31 176341 4154417.619 23.559
2013-11-30 16400 385475.44 23.5046
2013-10-31 167603 3960626.493 23.631
2013-09-30 42758 876167.0054 20.4913
2013-08-31 263456 5724451.0048 21.7283
2013-07-31 159319 3387504.3056 21.2624
2013-06-30 201542 4371808.7556 21.6918
2013-05-31 373249 9671628.088 25.912
2013-04-30 40902 1120714.8 27.4
2013-03-31 311809 8282520.1052 26.5628
2013-02-28 357770 8851838.009 24.7417
2013-01-31 66612 1542840.4992 23.1616
2012-12-31 370019 7705090.6465 20.8235
2012-11-30 221379 4112535.5451 18.5769
2012-10-31 176292 3658482.1008 20.7524
2012-09-30 426737 8503929.5886 19.9278
2012-08-31 437920 7944788.432 18.1421
2012-07-31 113800 1923151.72 16.8994
2012-06-30 241460 3842570.294 15.9139
2012-05-31 172734 2493311.6496 14.4344

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused SRDX's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused SRDX's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2013-12-13 0.34 21933 20980 953 28.02941176
2013-12-12 -0.09 14396 16786 -2390 -265.5555556
2013-12-11 -0.77 16544 26486 -9942 -129.1168831
2013-12-10 0.12 33325 37523 -4198 Bullish Bias
2013-12-09 0.09 30343 26674 3669 407.6666667
2013-12-06 0.08 42301 59377 -17076 Bullish Bias
2013-12-05 0.5 37045 32022 5023 100.46
2013-12-04 -0.21 38794 36021 2773 Bearish Bias
2013-12-03 0.85 27046 45494 -18448 Bullish Bias
2013-12-02 -1.13 19411 33047 -13636 -120.6725664
2013-11-29 0.13 4715 3887 828 63.69230769
2013-11-27 0.34 41832 41898 -66 Bullish Bias
2013-11-26 0.21 16528 18835 -2307 Bullish Bias
2013-11-25 0.22 11407 13446 -2039 Bullish Bias
2013-11-22 0.27 19654 19651 3 0.111111111
2013-11-21 0.72 23691 17569 6122 85.02777778
2013-11-20 0.03 19999 24675 -4676 Bullish Bias
2013-11-19 0.03 18053 26380 -8327 Bullish Bias
2013-11-18 -1.0 44619 33632 10987 Bearish Bias
2013-11-15 0.74 36647 20297 16350 220.9459459

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. SRDX has a current value of 11.44 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $20.48 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$20.48
52 Week Range$19.55 - $25.99
1 Month Range$20.12 - $22.55
Avg Daily Volume72035.0
PE Ratio24.41
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$0.904
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding13MM
Market Capitalization$304.50MM
 
 

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