Market Read®

  • Monday, July 14 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between February 12, 2014 and March 05, 2014. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NYSE: ASH)

Ashland Inc.


Bullish

Ashland Inc. operates as a specialty chemicals company in the United States and internationally. Its Ashland Aqualon Functional Ingredients segment produces cellulose ethers; and specialty additives and functional ingredients. Its products offer functionality, such as thickening and rheology control; water retention; adhesive strength; binding power; film formation; protective colloid, suspending, and emulsifying action; foam control; and pH stability. The companys Ashland Hercules Water Technologies segment manufactures papermaking chemicals and supplies specialty chemicals. It offers sizing agents, wet/dry strength additives, and crepe and release additives for tissue manufacturing; and deposit control agents, defoamers, biocides, and other process additives. This segment also provides specialized chemicals and consulting services for the utility water treatment; and performance-based feed and control systems; and monitoring devices and remote system surveillance. Its Ashland Performance Materials segment manufactures and supplies specialty chemicals and customized services to the building and construction, transportation, metal casting, packaging and converting, and marine markets. It also offers unsaturated polyester and vinyl ester resins, and gelcoats; adhesives and specialty resins; and metal casting consumables and design services. The companys Ashland Consumer Markets segment produces and markets packaged automotive lubricants, chemicals, appearance products, antifreeze, and filters to the private passenger car, light truck, and heavy duty markets. It also operates a quick-lube franchise under the name of Valvoline Instant Oil Change. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Covington, Kentucky.

Investment Highlights

  • EARNINGS predicts that ASH will move up 2.87% by February 14, 2014. The target is $99.83. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of ASH expected to move up in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Trend Line Break(5+)' pattern. Specifically, a RTM7 variant of Trend Line Break(5+) has been detected. The target is $99.44. more
  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of ASH expected to move up in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Wedge, Rising' pattern. Specifically, a Reversal (Stocks) DWC variant of Wedge, Rising has been detected. The target is $100.19. more
  • SQUEEZETRIGGER predicts that when ASH closes above $60.19, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of ASH considerably higher.
  • VALUATION ASH has a current calculated value of $108.18 which means the stock is undervalued compared to its price of $107.45.

Predictive Range January 27, 2014 - March 05, 2014

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$95.33 - $99.82

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Earnings

 

Predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after earnings reports.

The movement of stock prices in the days and weeks leading to and following these earnings announcements may follow a predictable pattern. Most companies stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings dates. But some seem to repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. The # of Reports in the table below shows how many previous quarterly reports comprise the indicator that predicts how a stock will act after its earnings are released.
Earnings, or profits, drive stock prices. The market values a company based on its current and anticipated future ability to make money. The market takes the earnings pulse of a company four times per year when quarterly reports are issued. When this information is released it can often be a trend-changing or a trend confirming event because the information is so vital to the market's perception of the vitality of that company.
This technology is designed to help the stock trader identify those companies that seem to have a consistent pattern of movement before or after the earnings release date, based on the history

  • ASH, currently trading around 107.45 expected to hit $99.83.
  • The price of ASH tends to move up after earnings report dates.
  • Of the previous 6 earnings releases, ASH has moved up 67% of the time.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) is predicted to go up in coming weeks based on bullish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. ASH has demonstrated Trend Line Break(5+) strategy RTM7 with a strength of 5.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of ASH expected to move up in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'RTM7' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a RTM7 variant of Trend Line Break(5+) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that ASH will move up in the coming weeks.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for ASH is 60.19.

This means that when ASH closes above $60.19, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of ASH considerably higher.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-02-28 1492907 137240253.277 91.9282
2014-01-31 1026954 100918872.275 98.2701
2013-12-31 1984453 185971425.333 93.7142
2013-11-30 3032758 272841770.194 89.9649
2013-10-31 1368848 120886115.23 88.3123
2013-09-30 2410670 218303284.257 90.5571
2013-08-31 3550513 311722969.656 87.7966
2013-07-31 3204432 276935985.85 86.4228
2013-06-30 3684607 315332720.128 85.5811
2013-05-31 5375532 475047589.01 88.3722
2013-04-30 9879671 808665890.857 81.8515
2013-03-31 5140005 398964104.097 77.6194
2013-02-28 4210940 328784720.978 78.0787
2013-01-31 3912740 326993942.184 83.5716
2012-12-31 4500148 343005780.708 76.221
2012-11-30 3326705 235554666.276 70.8072
2012-10-31 3056368 215501145.675 70.5089
2012-09-30 3448165 254017695.137 73.6675
2012-08-31 3381083 244317057.58 72.26
2012-07-31 3608614 247766354.656 68.6597

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused ASH's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused ASH's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-02-11 0.81 212976 220285 -7309 Bullish Bias
2014-02-10 -0.59 258819 250305 8514 Bearish Bias
2014-02-07 1.15 170710 161659 9051 78.70434783
2014-02-06 3.21 267908 363472 -95564 Bullish Bias
2014-02-05 0.69 211891 295937 -84046 Bullish Bias
2014-02-04 0.37 294976 179030 115946 3133.675676
2014-02-03 -1.3 172404 121963 50441 Bearish Bias
2014-01-31 -1.3 172404 121963 50441 Bearish Bias
2014-01-30 0.06 133499 146765 -13266 Bullish Bias
2014-01-29 -0.13 142813 108190 34623 Bearish Bias
2014-01-28 -1.1 516653 467925 48728 Bearish Bias
2014-01-27 0.13 248453 343383 -94930 Bullish Bias
2014-01-24 -1.88 118800 347208 -228408 -1214.93617
2014-01-23 -0.61 240146 301475 -61329 -1005.393443
2014-01-22 -1.14 197514 268875 -71361 -625.9736842
2014-01-17 -0.52 130141 125064 5077 Bearish Bias
2014-01-16 -0.71 120046 133627 -13581 -191.2816901
2014-01-15 0.4 226253 163133 63120 1578
2014-01-14 1.39 122888 157837 -34949 Bullish Bias
2014-01-13 -1.66 88575 107935 -19360 -116.626506

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. ASH has a current value of 108.18 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $107.45 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$107.45
52 Week Range$84.17 - $110.02
1 Month Range$104.48 - $110.02
Avg Daily Volume579075.0
PE Ratio14.44
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$7.543
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding77MM
Market Capitalization$8511.00MM
 
 

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