Market Read®

  • Thursday, September 03 2015

(NYSE: ASH)

Ashland Inc.


Bearish

Ashland Inc. operates as a specialty chemicals company in the United States and internationally. Its Ashland Aqualon Functional Ingredients segment produces cellulose ethers; and specialty additives and functional ingredients. Its products offer functionality, such as thickening and rheology control; water retention; adhesive strength; binding power; film formation; protective colloid, suspending, and emulsifying action; foam control; and pH stability. The companys Ashland Hercules Water Technologies segment manufactures papermaking chemicals and supplies specialty chemicals. It offers sizing agents, wet/dry strength additives, and crepe and release additives for tissue manufacturing; and deposit control agents, defoamers, biocides, and other process additives. This segment also provides specialized chemicals and consulting services for the utility water treatment; and performance-based feed and control systems; and monitoring devices and remote system surveillance. Its Ashland Performance Materials segment manufactures and supplies specialty chemicals and customized services to the building and construction, transportation, metal casting, packaging and converting, and marine markets. It also offers unsaturated polyester and vinyl ester resins, and gelcoats; adhesives and specialty resins; and metal casting consumables and design services. The companys Ashland Consumer Markets segment produces and markets packaged automotive lubricants, chemicals, appearance products, antifreeze, and filters to the private passenger car, light truck, and heavy duty markets. It also operates a quick-lube franchise under the name of Valvoline Instant Oil Change. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Covington, Kentucky.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of ASH expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Support Break(1)' pattern. Specifically, a SS Heikin Ashi 2 variant of Support Break(1) has been detected. The target is $107.26. more
  • GROUP CORRELATION predicts the price of ASH expected to move down to $98.93 in the coming weeks. more
  • VALUATION ASH has a current calculated value of $64.11 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $101.75.

Predictive Range August 22, 2015 - September 19, 2015

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$112.31 - $103.09

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. ASH has demonstrated Support Break(1) strategy SS Heikin Ashi 2 with a strength of 3.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of ASH expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'SS Heikin Ashi 2' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a SS Heikin Ashi 2 variant of Support Break(1) has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that ASH will move down in the coming weeks.

Group Sector

 

Identifies stocks that respond to group consensus "herd mentality" market movements.

Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) is predicted to go down as the top stocks in the Basic Materials have fired sell signals. The majority of the top stocks in the Basic Materials sector have fired sell signals as of today. Group rotation is a phenomenon where institutions exert buying or selling pressure in an industry group, pushing prices of the group higher or lower relative to the general market. An industry can often lead or lag the market, and the most highly correlated stocks usually move in unison.

  • The price of ASH expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • ASH is strongly correlated (0.71) to stocks in the Basic Materials sector.
  • These stocks have fired sell signals, and ASH is expected to follow.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for ASH is 68.10.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-08-31 2249968 247505479.872 110.004
2015-07-31 2286965 269253537.31 117.734
2015-06-30 1365746 172360696.14 126.2026
2015-05-31 2536852 324341601.904 127.852
2015-04-30 1998521 255184751.223 127.6868
2015-03-31 2350397 296830226.892 126.2894
2015-02-28 2141425 268365308.282 125.3209
2015-01-31 3334492 394694148.013 118.3671
2014-12-31 2778530 324847111.449 116.9133
2014-11-30 2715492 298766847.865 110.0231
2014-10-31 7427678 752873898.687 101.3606
2014-09-30 2412085 258183548.188 107.0375
2014-08-31 4096225 422911473.145 103.2442
2014-07-31 2113459 227464617.755 107.6267
2014-06-30 1961766 208109630.225 106.0828
2014-05-31 2297843 234124695.643 101.8889
2014-04-30 2199548 213796505.51 97.2002
2014-03-31 2654503 255321247.453 96.1842
2014-02-28 1492907 137240253.277 91.9282
2014-01-31 1026954 100918872.275 98.2701

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused ASH's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused ASH's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-08-31 0.32 150061 182363 -32302 Bullish Bias
2015-08-28 -0.34 176661 142590 34071 Bearish Bias
2015-08-27 3.01 195793 158215 37578 124.8438538
2015-08-26 2.6 178296 157278 21018 80.83846154
2015-08-25 -2.37 186216 210011 -23795 -100.4008439
2015-08-24 -5.56 267918 299427 -31509 -56.67086331
2015-08-21 -3.57 151762 214547 -62785 -175.8683473
2015-08-20 -2.78 167939 197149 -29210 -105.0719424
2015-08-19 -1.96 164996 170787 -5791 -29.54591837
2015-08-18 -1.12 123272 110943 12329 Bearish Bias
2015-08-17 0.98 171217 256915 -85698 Bullish Bias
2015-08-14 1.23 194021 148073 45948 373.5609756
2015-08-13 0.77 128116 113040 15076 195.7922078
2015-08-12 -1.1 232248 204236 28012 Bearish Bias
2015-08-11 -1.75 210993 162576 48417 Bearish Bias
2015-08-10 1.24 120880 158235 -37355 Bullish Bias
2015-08-07 -0.67 107789 129923 -22134 -330.358209
2015-08-06 -0.6 140087 143665 -3578 -59.63333333
2015-08-05 0.81 233418 227713 5705 70.43209877
2015-08-04 0.7 159784 198207 -38423 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. ASH has a current value of 64.11 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $101.75 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 16.409 81.71 13011 587 95.68%
SqueezeTrigger 12.487 21.7 9758 681 93.48%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.297 15.23 52852 4967 91.41%
Group Correlation 6.651 14.4 7044 851 89.22%
PatternScan 8.448 11.43 196438 29389 86.99%
Events 6.845 11.28 4264 656 86.67%
Earnings 8.511 10.33 24462 4901 83.31%
GATS 5.411 7.9 68964 14149 82.98%
Naked Shorts 13.825 10.99 2762 708 79.60%
Friction Factor 6.985 3.64 7411 2112 77.82%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$101.75
52 Week Range$84.43 - $110.02
1 Month Range$106.05 - $110.02
Avg Daily Volume546270.0
PE Ratio14.26
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$7.543
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding77MM
Market Capitalization$8375.00MM
 
 

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