Market Read®

  • Wednesday, August 24 2016

(NYSE: ASH)

Ashland Inc.


Bearish

Ashland Inc. operates as a specialty chemicals company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Specialty Ingredients, Performance Materials, and Valvoline. The Specialty Ingredients segment provides products, technologies, and resources for solving formulation and product-performance challenges. It offers solutions using natural, synthetic, and semisynthetic polymers derived from plant and seed extract, cellulose ethers, vinyl pyrrolidones, and acrylic polymers, as well as polyester and polyurethane-based adhesives. This segment serves pharmaceutical companies; makers of personal care products, food, and beverages; manufacturers of paint, coatings, and construction materials; packaging and converting markets; and oilfield service companies. The Performance Materials segment offers composites, such as polyester and vinyl ester resins, gelcoats, molten maleic anhydride, and low-profile additives; and intermediates and solvents, including 1,4 butanediol, tetrahydrofuran, and n-methylpyrrolidone. This segment serves manufacturers of residential and commercial building products; industrial product specifiers and manufacturers; wind blade manufacturers; pipe manufacturers; automotive and truck OEM suppliers; boatbuilders; chemical producers; and electronics makers. The Valvoline segment produces and distributes automotive, commercial, and industrial lubricants, and automotive chemicals. It offers lubricants and automotive chemicals under the Valvoline brand; lubricants for cars with higher mileage engines under the MaxLife brand; synthetic motor oil under the SynPower brand; and antifreeze products under the Zerex brand. This segment also operates and franchises approximately 940 Valvoline Instant Oil Change centers in the United States. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Covington, Kentucky.

Investment Highlights

  • GROUP CORRELATION predicts the price of ASH expected to move down to $111.07 in the coming weeks. more
  • VALUATION ASH has a current calculated value of $89.98 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $115.96.

Predictive Range July 29, 2016 - August 26, 2016

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$112.68 - $111.07

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Group Sector

 

Identifies stocks that respond to group consensus "herd mentality" market movements.

Ashland Inc. (NYSE: ASH) is predicted to go down as the top stocks in the Basic Materials have fired sell signals. The majority of the top stocks in the Basic Materials sector have fired sell signals as of today. Group rotation is a phenomenon where institutions exert buying or selling pressure in an industry group, pushing prices of the group higher or lower relative to the general market. An industry can often lead or lag the market, and the most highly correlated stocks usually move in unison.

  • The price of ASH expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • ASH is strongly correlated (0.77) to stocks in the Basic Materials sector.
  • These stocks have fired sell signals, and ASH is expected to follow.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for ASH is 74.26.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2016-07-31 2674075 319021426.02 119.3016
2016-06-30 2166014 248924177.118 114.9227
2016-05-31 3236672 363291833.293 112.2424
2016-04-30 4458886 500427464.109 112.2315
2016-03-31 6533842 679230118.799 103.9557
2016-02-29 7648682 711484223.981 93.0205
2016-01-31 9762030 946753884.099 96.9833
2015-12-31 5918941 628527017.743 106.1891
2015-11-30 5078958 562468695.814 110.7449
2015-10-31 4985814 526842489.496 105.6683
2015-09-30 352213 36108524.547 102.519
2015-08-31 2249968 247505479.872 110.004
2015-07-31 2286965 269253537.31 117.734
2015-06-30 1365746 172360696.14 126.2026
2015-05-31 2536852 324341601.904 127.852
2015-04-30 1998521 255184751.223 127.6868
2015-03-31 2350397 296830226.892 126.2894
2015-02-28 2141425 268365308.282 125.3209
2015-01-31 3334492 394694148.013 118.3671
2014-12-31 2778530 324847111.449 116.9133

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused ASH's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused ASH's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2016-07-28 0.18 230425 219855 10570 587.2222222
2016-07-27 -8.13 373131 433856 -60725 -74.69249692
2016-07-26 0.32 123794 116075 7719 241.21875
2016-07-25 -1.02 65794 120776 -54982 -539.0392157
2016-07-22 0.72 90613 63592 27021 375.2916667
2016-07-21 -0.7 59012 80246 -21234 -303.3428571
2016-07-20 1.39 211941 224607 -12666 Bullish Bias
2016-07-19 -0.09 94461 76099 18362 Bearish Bias
2016-07-18 -0.56 56660 46523 10137 Bearish Bias
2016-07-15 -0.37 75412 162141 -86729 -2344.027027
2016-07-14 0.88 94062 101793 -7731 Bullish Bias
2016-07-13 0.7 97527 81706 15821 226.0142857
2016-07-12 2.42 156101 155120 981 4.053719008
2016-07-11 0.09 78390 180419 -102029 Bullish Bias
2016-07-08 3.65 131682 161684 -30002 Bullish Bias
2016-07-07 1.31 43023 65608 -22585 Bullish Bias
2016-07-06 0.31 271199 127637 143562 4631.032258
2016-07-05 -2.78 54517 91129 -36612 -131.6978417
2016-07-01 0.74 71619 47454 24165 326.5540541
2016-06-30 2.26 131440 309841 -178401 Bullish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. ASH has a current value of 89.98 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $115.96 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 18.144 83.15 16072 809 95.21%
SqueezeTrigger 14.957 21.72 11298 875 92.81%
Valuation 19.577 27.08 4010 317 92.67%
Seasonality 11.095 15.23 59080 6681 89.84%
Group Correlation 8.309 15.22 12481 1522 89.13%
PatternScan 12.227 11.44 240816 38731 86.15%
Events 9.851 11.18 4656 828 84.90%
GATS 8.717 7.89 88060 20733 80.94%
Earnings 12.952 10.44 24144 5878 80.42%
Naked Shorts 19.987 10.97 2848 782 78.46%
Friction Factor 10.717 3.62 8365 2572 76.48%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$115.96
52 Week Range$84.43 - $110.02
1 Month Range$106.05 - $110.02
Avg Daily Volume546270.0
PE Ratio14.26
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2016(E)$7.543
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding77MM
Market Capitalization$8375.00MM
 
 

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