Market Read®

  • Saturday, July 12 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between March 13, 2014 and May 16, 2014. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: FCBC)

First
Community
Bancshares


Bearish

First Community Bancshares, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for First Community Bank, N.A. that provides various commercial and consumer banking products and services. The company offers demand deposit accounts, savings and money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement arrangements; commercial, consumer, and real estate mortgage loans, as well as lines of credit; various debit card and automated teller machine card services; and corporate and personal trust services. It also provides wealth management services, including trust management, estate administration, and investment advisory services. In addition, the company operates an insurance agency that offers life, health, and property and casualty insurance products. It serves individual consumers and various industries, such as manufacturing, mining, services, construction, retail, healthcare, military, and transportation. As of December 31, 2012, the company operated through 72 banking offices in Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The company was formerly known as FCFT, Inc. and changed its name to First Community Bancshares, Inc. in September 1997. First Community Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bluefield, Virginia.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of FCBC expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Counterattack' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Counterattack has been detected. The target is $16.32. more
  • INSIDER predicts that FCBC will move down based on insiders trading in the stock. more

Predictive Range November 14, 2013 - May 16, 2014

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$16.99 - $14.35

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

First Community Bancshares (NASDAQ: FCBC) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. FCBC has demonstrated Counterattack strategy ACT EOD with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of FCBC expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD variant of Counterattack has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that FCBC will move down in the coming weeks.

Insider

Tracks stock transactions by company "insiders" and correlates them with historical data.

First Community Bancshares (NASDAQ: FCBC) is expected to go lower as sell signals have been generated by top insider trading patterns. The most important data elements considered when performing insider analysis are: Insiders Track Record - An insiders track record is best summarized by the Insider Score which ranges from 1 (least predictive) to 100 (most predictive) based on prior trading performance. In addition, the actual returns following the insiders prior trades are included to determine the potential magnitude of future returns. Insiders Role - Trades by higher-level insiders are generally more predictive than trades by lower level insiders. Higher-level insiders to include Chairman, CEO, President, CFO, and Vice Chairman.

  • The price of FCBC expected to move down soon.
  • Insider selling has been detected by high level insiders at the company.
  • Based on our predictive insider equity formula, FCBC is expected to fall to $12.38.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for FCBC is 13.90.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-03-31 23335 393890.133 16.8798
2014-02-28 103494 1641394.1412 15.8598
2014-01-31 127042 2071241.9512 16.3036
2013-12-31 44538 747075.9582 16.7739
2013-11-30 628569 10441033.9452 16.6108
2013-10-31 146262 2472003.3144 16.9012
2013-09-30 120079 1879176.3105 15.6495
2013-08-31 135096 2078614.0752 15.3862
2013-07-31 83982 1392211.605 16.5775
2013-06-30 13596 207396.1032 15.2542
2013-05-31 167946 2566013.3448 15.2788
2013-04-30 135463 2089218.7564 15.4228
2013-03-31 15899 245539.3863 15.4437
2013-02-28 72402 1127443.944 15.572
2013-01-31 72860 1163450.338 15.9683
2012-12-31 19719 303100.749 15.371
2012-11-30 53207 791172.1279 14.8697
2012-10-31 68699 1040391.3958 15.1442
2012-09-30 98663 1521935.9728 15.4256
2012-08-31 115253 1699647.5163 14.7471

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused FCBC's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused FCBC's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-03-12 0.16 13047 9652 3395 212.1875
2014-03-11 -0.35 9725 8316 1409 Bearish Bias
2014-03-10 0.05 11647 13333 -1686 Bullish Bias
2014-03-07 0.0 18945 16955 1990 Bearish Bias
2014-03-06 0.01 18865 13549 5316 5316
2014-03-05 -0.01 8189 16386 -8197 -8197
2014-03-04 0.35 61882 47854 14028 400.8
2014-03-03 -0.1 6581 8108 -1527 -152.7
2014-02-28 0.16 26377 39741 -13364 Bullish Bias
2014-02-27 0.16 29166 5385 23781 1486.3125
2014-02-26 0.24 10163 9748 415 17.29166667
2014-02-25 0.0 5009 6033 -1024 Bullish Bias
2014-02-24 0.25 33492 18172 15320 612.8
2014-02-21 0.07 32930 13559 19371 2767.285714
2014-02-20 0.18 9480 20242 -10762 Bullish Bias
2014-02-19 -0.28 21322 22421 -1099 -39.25
2014-02-18 -0.28 13718 6098 7620 Bearish Bias
2014-02-14 -0.12 9572 7369 2203 Bearish Bias
2014-02-13 0.13 6486 4008 2478 190.6153846
2014-02-12 -0.05 13760 10617 3143 Bearish Bias

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.14 73.22 9094 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.746 22.38 7780 471 94.29%
Group Correlation 7.358 15.0 1309 86 93.84%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.455 15.2 42634 4138 91.15%
PatternScan 8.448 11.36 133678 19298 87.38%
Events 6.937 11.19 3396 544 86.19%
GATS 5.386 7.94 45118 8572 84.03%
Earnings 8.677 10.28 21694 4355 83.28%
Naked Shorts 14.525 10.84 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.506 3.63 5606 1607 77.72%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$14.15
52 Week Range$13.75 - $18.29
1 Month Range$13.79 - $14.87
Avg Daily Volume40215.0
PE Ratio13.65
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$1.067
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding18MM
Market Capitalization$271.30MM
 
 

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