Market Read®

  • Tuesday, March 03 2015

(NASDAQ: OREX)

Orexigen Therapeutics


Bearish

Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of pharmaceutical product candidates for the treatment of obesity. Its product candidates include NB32, which has completed Phase III clinical trials and is being studied in a cardiovascular outcomes trial; and Empatic that has completed Phase II clinical trials. Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited to develop and commercialize NB32 in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of OREX expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Three Outside Down' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Three Outside Down has been detected. The target is $5.22. more
  • GROUP CORRELATION predicts the price of OREX expected to move down to $5.64 in the coming weeks. more
  • VALUATION OREX has a current calculated value of $0.64 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $5.66.

Predictive Range February 26, 2015 - March 26, 2015

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$5.85 - $5.43

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. OREX has demonstrated Three Outside Down strategy ACT EOD (+1) with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of OREX expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD (+1)' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Three Outside Down has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that OREX will move down in the coming weeks.

Group Sector

 

Identifies stocks that respond to group consensus "herd mentality" market movements.

Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) is predicted to go down as the top stocks in the Healthcare have fired sell signals. The majority of the top stocks in the Healthcare sector have fired sell signals as of today. Group rotation is a phenomenon where institutions exert buying or selling pressure in an industry group, pushing prices of the group higher or lower relative to the general market. An industry can often lead or lag the market, and the most highly correlated stocks usually move in unison.

  • The price of OREX expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • OREX is strongly correlated (0.23) to stocks in the Healthcare sector.
  • These stocks have fired sell signals, and OREX is expected to follow.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for OREX is 5.16.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-02-28 5166133 28458160.2438 5.5086
2015-01-31 13403074 74515730.2104 5.5596
2014-12-31 19066079 114331649.331 5.9966
2014-11-30 17391195 86441195.628 4.9704
2014-10-31 16618100 64817237.24 3.9004
2014-09-30 15733763 89178968.684 5.668
2014-08-31 1716748 8550435.0888 4.9806
2014-07-31 18146959 99545143.5945 5.4855
2014-06-30 25802795 161215863.16 6.248
2014-05-31 18128828 104304211.898 5.7535
2014-04-30 3578886 22008001.5684 6.1494
2014-03-31 2300079 16188876.0336 7.0384
2014-02-28 11335655 77666240.2325 6.8515
2014-01-31 8093868 48735607.3884 6.0213
2013-12-31 18653658 110580749.99 5.9281
2013-11-30 2111133 10145049.6315 4.8055
2013-10-31 613861 3784944.1538 6.1658
2013-09-30 3519466 23406560.5796 6.6506
2013-08-31 919961 6994831.4674 7.6034
2013-07-31 8634669 58922981.256 6.824

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused OREX's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused OREX's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-02-25 0.03 1116488 1027183 89305 29768.33333
2015-02-24 -0.21 1069322 1051202 18120 Bearish Bias
2015-02-23 0.08 1193640 1067382 126258 15782.25
2015-02-20 0.28 1042967 772830 270137 9647.75
2015-02-19 0.03 599311 760543 -161232 Bullish Bias
2015-02-18 0.02 325650 372982 -47332 Bullish Bias
2015-02-17 0.16 702394 559958 142436 8902.25
2015-02-13 0.1 381970 376272 5698 569.8
2015-02-12 0.09 882499 854697 27802 3089.111111
2015-02-11 0.09 374282 345006 29276 3252.888889
2015-02-10 0.05 304133 259672 44461 8892.2
2015-02-09 -0.07 427020 511281 -84261 -12037.28571
2015-02-06 -0.11 358571 425917 -67346 -6122.363636
2015-02-05 0.18 697668 599998 97670 5426.111111
2015-02-04 -0.09 610123 634877 -24754 -2750.444444
2015-02-03 0.24 1177871 1047016 130855 5452.291667
2015-02-02 -0.15 773753 939931 -166178 -11078.53333
2015-01-30 -0.09 473486 514874 -41388 -4598.666667
2015-01-29 -0.14 843314 1367258 -523944 -37424.57143
2015-01-28 -0.14 959912 1105657 -145745 -10410.35714

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. OREX has a current value of 0.64 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $5.66 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.879 77.9 11208 575 95.12%
SqueezeTrigger 12.548 22.07 8987 582 93.92%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.338 15.2 48661 4643 91.29%
Group Correlation 6.816 14.92 3332 321 91.21%
PatternScan 8.55 11.51 174863 25739 87.17%
Events 6.905 11.25 3932 605 86.67%
Earnings 8.556 10.24 23348 4716 83.20%
GATS 5.388 7.9 58789 11908 83.16%
Naked Shorts 14.01 10.92 2616 684 79.27%
Friction Factor 7.176 3.63 6609 1895 77.72%

Prediction Success

 

Past success in predictions regarding Orexigen Therapeutics.

  • April 07, 2014 - Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:OREX), Down By 7.83% ($0.49) From $6.260 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Down Due To Bearish Conditions

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$5.66
52 Week Range$4.59 - $7.84
1 Month Range$5.00 - $6.34
Avg Daily Volume2766715.0
PE Ratio0.0
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$-0.822
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding116MM
Market Capitalization$654.90MM
 
 

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