Market Read®

  • Thursday, July 10 2014

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between April 28, 2014 and May 27, 2014. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: OREX)

Orexigen Therapeutics


Bullish

Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of pharmaceutical product candidates for the treatment of obesity. Its product candidates include Contrave, which has completed Phase III clinical trials and is being studied in a cardiovascular outcomes trial; and Empatic, which has completed Phase II clinical trials. The company has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited to develop and commercialize Contrave in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of OREX expected to move up in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Hanging Man' pattern. Specifically, a DTM Daily Swing Divergence variant of Hanging Man has been detected. The target is $6.24. more
  • SQUEEZETRIGGER predicts that when OREX closes above $5.07, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of OREX considerably higher.
  • VALUATION OREX has a current calculated value of $11.11 which means the stock is undervalued compared to its price of $5.46.

Predictive Range April 15, 2014 - May 27, 2014

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$5.33 - $6.60

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Squeeze Trigger

 

Calculates the exact price at which a short squeeze will start.

Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) has just triggered an alert where OREX is crossing above its primary SqueezeTrigger Price, the price that a short squeeze can start in any stock. Given the amount that short sellers need to cover, it is predicted that OREX could go up dramatically by May 27, 2014

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for OREX is 5.07.

This means that when OREX closes above $5.07, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of OREX considerably higher.

  • OREX has hit the Squeeze Trigger price of 5.073
  • Based on the amount of value that short sellers need to cover, a short squeeze is predicted at 5.073.
  • Short Sellers will be forced to buy to cover short positions, sending the price higher.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) is predicted to go up in coming weeks based on bullish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. OREX has demonstrated Hanging Man strategy DTM Daily Swing Divergence with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of OREX expected to move up in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'DTM Daily Swing Divergence' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a DTM Daily Swing Divergence variant of Hanging Man has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that OREX will move up in the coming weeks.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for OREX is 5.07.

This means that when OREX closes above $5.07, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of OREX considerably higher.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-04-30 3578886 22008001.5684 6.1494
2014-03-31 2300079 16188876.0336 7.0384
2014-02-28 11335655 77666240.2325 6.8515
2014-01-31 8093868 48735607.3884 6.0213
2013-12-31 18653658 110580749.99 5.9281
2013-11-30 2111133 10145049.6315 4.8055
2013-10-31 613861 3784944.1538 6.1658
2013-09-30 3519466 23406560.5796 6.6506
2013-08-31 919961 6994831.4674 7.6034
2013-07-31 8634669 58922981.256 6.824
2013-06-30 5374431 32940425.0421 6.1291
2013-05-31 6669342 42121563.2694 6.3157
2013-04-30 5082595 31147158.679 6.1282
2013-03-31 8288476 51009767.8468 6.1543
2013-02-28 5046950 28395150.09 5.6262
2013-01-31 10974630 66848666.256 6.0912
2012-12-31 6835948 35215386.122 5.1515
2012-11-30 8539905 39728492.0505 4.6521
2012-10-31 12520736 74409481.9744 5.9429
2012-09-30 190094 862076.29 4.535

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused OREX's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused OREX's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-04-25 0.07 1347151 1318733 28418 4059.714286
2014-04-24 -0.01 949314 682300 267014 Bearish Bias
2014-04-23 -0.16 1041982 1095808 -53826 -3364.125
2014-04-22 0.36 1128466 1016190 112276 3118.777778
2014-04-21 0.0 474881 370893 103988 Bearish Bias
2014-04-17 -0.05 720593 646083 74510 Bearish Bias
2014-04-16 0.23 1364606 1014580 350026 15218.52174
2014-04-15 0.09 2021654 1840132 181522 20169.11111
2014-04-14 -0.08 1624227 1380444 243783 Bearish Bias
2014-04-11 -0.23 1337561 1676912 -339351 -14754.3913
2014-04-10 -0.44 1078307 1234054 -155747 -3539.704545
2014-04-09 0.26 929872 655553 274319 10550.73077
2014-04-08 0.03 776678 727202 49476 16492
2014-04-07 -0.1 1183254 1149438 33816 Bearish Bias
2014-04-04 -0.51 1913222 1829898 83324 Bearish Bias
2014-04-03 -0.22 1133418 1092740 40678 Bearish Bias
2014-04-02 -0.04 666150 756556 -90406 -22601.5
2014-04-01 0.02 1017739 928845 88894 44447
2014-03-31 0.28 2473474 1395639 1077835 38494.10714
2014-03-28 -0.33 1401742 1505006 -103264 -3129.212121

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. OREX has a current value of 11.11 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $5.46 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.127 73.12 9082 474 95.04%
SqueezeTrigger 12.737 22.37 7779 472 94.28%
Group Correlation 7.346 14.96 1308 88 93.70%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.458 15.2 42589 4126 91.17%
PatternScan 8.448 11.37 133305 19233 87.39%
Events 6.942 11.19 3387 543 86.18%
GATS 5.388 7.95 45028 8523 84.08%
Earnings 8.681 10.28 21679 4349 83.29%
Naked Shorts 14.491 10.83 2233 589 79.13%
Friction Factor 7.503 3.63 5599 1602 77.75%

Prediction Success

 

Past success in predictions regarding Orexigen Therapeutics.

  • April 07, 2014 - Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:OREX), Down By 7.83% ($0.49) From $6.260 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Down Due To Bearish Conditions
  • October 09, 2013 - Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:OREX), Down By 8.32% ($0.50) From $6.010 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Down Due To Bearish Conditions
  • January 07, 2013 - Orexigen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:OREX), Up By 6.50% ($0.39) From $6.000 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Up Due To Bullish Conditions

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$5.46
52 Week Range$4.59 - $7.84
1 Month Range$5.45 - $7.02
Avg Daily Volume4699730.0
PE Ratio0.0
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$-0.822
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding116MM
Market Capitalization$723.60MM
 
 

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