Market Read®

  • Sunday, September 25 2016

(NYSE: TX)

Ternium S.A.


Bearish

Ternium S.A. manufactures and processes various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, the United States, Central America, Colombia, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers steel products, such as slabs, billets and round bars, hot-rolled coils and sheets, bars and stirrups, wire rods, cold-rolled coils and sheets, tin plates, hot dipped galvanized and electrogalvanized sheets, pre-painted sheets, steel pipes and tubular products, beams, and roll formed products, as well as pre-engineered metal building systems. The Mining segment sells iron ore concentrates and pellets. The company serves various companies and small businesses that are operating in the construction, automotive, home appliances, capital goods, container, food, and energy industries. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of San Faustin S.A.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of TX expected to move down in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Triangle, Symmetrical' pattern. Specifically, a Trending (Stocks) DO variant of Triangle, Symmetrical has been detected. The target is $18.29. more
  • GATS predicts TX will move down in the coming weeks. Target is $17.71. more
  • GATS predicts TX will move down in the coming weeks. Target is $18.86. more
  • VALUATION TX has a current calculated value of $16.07 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $19.52.

Predictive Range September 13, 2016 - October 04, 2016

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$19.27 - $18.29

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) is predicted to go down in coming weeks based on bearish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. TX has demonstrated Triangle, Symmetrical strategy Trending (Stocks) DO with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of TX expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'Trending (Stocks) DO' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a Trending (Stocks) DO variant of Triangle, Symmetrical has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that TX will move down in the coming weeks.

GATS

 

Reduces risk by selecting the highest probability trades across market indices.

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) is expected to go down as bearish signals have been generated by top equity trading strategies. This trading system is designed to identify high probability reversion to mean trading candidates. It looks to go long immediately following strong sell-offs, and goes short after sharp run ups. Its trades are short term and hone in on the irrational decisions of emotional traders around these extreme moves.

  • The price of TX expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • Suggested stop level of 16.99 to limit potential trading losses.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for TX is 24.76.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2016-09-30 707050 14108192.88 19.9536
2016-08-31 3357303 74042296.0923 22.0541
2016-07-31 2842728 59696435.1816 20.9997
2016-06-30 3455980 66852822.718 19.3441
2016-05-31 1277581 23315725.4919 18.2499
2016-04-30 3024730 57893937.146 19.1402
2016-03-31 884599 15155038.5279 17.1321
2016-02-29 483843 5844339.597 12.079
2016-01-31 664826 7366471.5278 11.0803
2015-12-31 427396 5643892.3988 13.2053
2015-11-30 645945 9704936.058 15.0244
2015-10-31 894125 12685934.9125 14.1881
2015-09-30 482986 6325667.642 13.097
2015-08-31 9253 142079.815 15.355
2015-07-31 656062 10368075.817 15.8035
2015-06-30 516650 10056798.91 19.4654
2015-05-31 234417 4924468.2441 21.0073
2015-04-30 315150 5749123.875 18.2425
2015-03-31 600349 10682910.2805 17.7945
2015-02-28 1029697 18491916.5442 17.9586

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused TX's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused TX's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2016-09-16 -0.19 104678 60075 44603 Bearish Bias
2016-09-15 0.75 480067 248113 231954 3092.72
2016-09-14 -0.3 172802 146256 26546 Bearish Bias
2016-09-13 -0.91 50393 66892 -16499 -181.3076923
2016-09-12 0.13 72757 97095 -24338 Bullish Bias
2016-09-09 -0.79 87310 101848 -14538 -184.0253165
2016-09-08 0.31 90171 80339 9832 317.1612903
2016-09-07 -0.32 82005 66468 15537 Bearish Bias
2016-09-06 0.36 170246 159226 11020 306.1111111
2016-09-02 0.04 51014 59889 -8875 Bullish Bias
2016-09-01 0.06 38532 76807 -38275 Bullish Bias
2016-08-31 -0.45 170797 134819 35978 Bearish Bias
2016-08-30 -0.32 94316 81633 12683 Bearish Bias
2016-08-29 0.1 39995 61351 -21356 Bullish Bias
2016-08-26 -0.2 84127 85317 -1190 -59.5
2016-08-25 -0.12 93192 116793 -23601 -1966.75
2016-08-24 -0.19 94626 115011 -20385 -1072.894737
2016-08-23 -0.13 63908 48595 15313 Bearish Bias
2016-08-22 -0.37 62685 52167 10518 Bearish Bias
2016-08-19 -0.46 94066 96608 -2542 -55.26086957

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. TX has a current value of 16.07 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $19.52 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 18.058 82.75 16495 792 95.42%
SqueezeTrigger 14.974 21.74 11442 877 92.88%
Valuation 19.577 27.08 4010 317 92.67%
Seasonality 11.028 15.21 59684 6844 89.71%
Group Correlation 8.205 15.14 13036 1562 89.30%
PatternScan 12.14 11.42 244522 39133 86.20%
Events 9.826 11.16 4694 833 84.93%
GATS 8.65 7.88 89582 21092 80.94%
Earnings 12.952 10.46 24173 5882 80.43%
Naked Shorts 19.936 10.98 2880 788 78.52%
Friction Factor 10.589 3.62 8502 2613 76.49%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$19.52
52 Week Range$21.48 - $32.99
1 Month Range$27.60 - $30.10
Avg Daily Volume113535.0
PE Ratio11.9
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2016(E)$2.426
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding196MM
Market Capitalization$5612.00MM
 
 

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