Market Read®

  • Friday, July 11 2014

(NYSE: TX)

Ternium S.A.


Bullish

Ternium S.A. engages in manufacturing and processing a range of flat and long steel products for the construction, automotive, home appliances, capital goods, container, food, and energy industries. The company operates in two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers steel products that comprise slabs, hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, tin plate, welded pipes, hot dipped galvanized and electro-galvanized sheets, pre-painted sheets, billets, wire rod and bars, and other tailor-made products. The Mining segment provides mining products, primarily iron ore and pellets. It sells its products in Mexico; Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay; and the United States, Colombia, Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras. The company was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of San Faustin N.V.

Investment Highlights

  • PATTERN SCAN predicts the price of TX expected to move up in the coming weeks based on the appearance of a 'Technical' pattern. Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Technical has been detected. The target is $29.42. more
  • GATS predicts TX will move up in the coming weeks. Target is $31.53. more
  • SQUEEZETRIGGER predicts that when TX closes above $27.08, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of TX considerably higher.
  • VALUATION TX has a current calculated value of $33.64 which means the stock is undervalued compared to its price of $28.85.

Predictive Range June 23, 2014 - July 17, 2014

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$28.79 - $30.48

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Pattern Scan

 

Tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock.

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) is predicted to go up in coming weeks based on bullish technical trends that have appeared in the recent performance of the stock. TX has demonstrated Technical strategy ACT EOD (+1) with a strength of 1.0/5. The higher the strength, the higher the probability of an accurate prediction.

  • The price of TX expected to move up in the coming weeks.
  • PatternScan has detected that a 'ACT EOD (+1)' pattern has appeared.
  • Specifically, a ACT EOD (+1) variant of Technical has been detected.
  • This indicates a high probablity that TX will move up in the coming weeks.

GATS

 

Reduces risk by selecting the highest probability trades across market indices.

Ternium S.A. (NYSE: TX) is expected to go up as bullish signals have been generated by top equity trading strategies. This trading system is designed to identify high probability reversion to mean trading candidates. It looks to go long immediately following strong sell-offs, and goes short after sharp run ups. Its trades are short term and hone in on the irrational decisions of emotional traders around these extreme moves.

  • The price of TX expected to move up in the coming weeks.
  • Suggested stop level of 26.85 to limit potential trading losses.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for TX is 27.08.

This means that when TX closes above $27.08, we expect a short squeeze to begin that could quickly drive the price of TX considerably higher.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2014-07-31 84124 2419776.3856 28.7644
2014-06-30 602841 16766455.0284 27.8124
2014-05-31 573462 16544493.3924 28.8502
2014-04-30 502164 15099920.8308 30.0697
2014-03-31 842062 24707025.3482 29.3411
2014-02-28 1259516 37811929.836 30.021
2014-01-31 1415373 43245872.7912 30.5544
2013-12-31 583176 16034715.708 27.4955
2013-11-30 22313 583484.95 26.15
2013-10-31 250471 6504155.7867 25.9677
2013-09-30 358238 8928186.555 24.9225
2013-08-31 594405 14298055.632 24.0544
2013-07-31 391078 8841374.1006 22.6077
2013-06-30 754074 16905207.969 22.4185
2013-05-31 1503299 35628035.9701 23.6999
2013-04-30 2467511 50177082.9361 20.3351
2013-03-31 2637404 52955379.9544 20.0786
2013-02-28 707772 16508711.1228 23.3249
2013-01-31 1399921 32933281.5171 23.5251
2012-12-31 1775820 39952575.942 22.4981

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused TX's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused TX's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2014-07-02 1.19 43332 42176 1156 9.714285714
2014-07-01 0.71 51735 42951 8784 123.7183099
2014-06-30 -0.23 32912 20835 12077 Bearish Bias
2014-06-27 -0.39 70505 37568 32937 Bearish Bias
2014-06-26 -0.52 17886 24490 -6604 -127
2014-06-25 0.39 47620 47155 465 11.92307692
2014-06-24 0.55 92684 40656 52028 945.9636364
2014-06-23 0.38 23569 53708 -30139 Bullish Bias
2014-06-20 -0.24 14566 24457 -9891 -412.125
2014-06-19 -0.05 25695 25348 347 Bearish Bias
2014-06-18 0.87 65326 79772 -14446 Bullish Bias
2014-06-17 0.81 54880 39888 14992 185.0864198
2014-06-16 -0.54 25573 40388 -14815 -274.3518519
2014-06-13 -0.12 29362 23268 6094 Bearish Bias
2014-06-12 0.19 52217 71074 -18857 Bullish Bias
2014-06-11 0.02 67951 74060 -6109 Bullish Bias
2014-06-10 -0.58 78757 95626 -16869 -290.8448276
2014-06-09 -0.31 30490 31608 -1118 -36.06451613
2014-06-06 -0.01 48847 43463 5384 Bearish Bias
2014-06-05 -0.32 91157 81933 9224 Bearish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. TX has a current value of 33.64 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $28.85 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 15.136 73.18 9093 472 95.07%
SqueezeTrigger 12.738 22.37 7780 473 94.27%
Group Correlation 7.341 14.99 1310 87 93.77%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.459 15.21 42599 4123 91.18%
PatternScan 8.449 11.37 133502 19274 87.38%
Events 6.943 11.2 3389 543 86.19%
GATS 5.387 7.94 45083 8534 84.08%
Earnings 8.678 10.28 21689 4352 83.29%
Naked Shorts 14.518 10.83 2232 589 79.12%
Friction Factor 7.501 3.63 5601 1604 77.74%

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$28.85
52 Week Range$21.48 - $32.99
1 Month Range$25.74 - $30.10
Avg Daily Volume143205.0
PE Ratio12.3
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2014(E)$2.426
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding196MM
Market Capitalization$5801.00MM
 
 

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