Market Read®

  • Monday, August 31 2015

This prediction has passed its maturity date!

This prediction was valid between July 23, 2015 and August 19, 2015. All information in this report is for reference only and should not be considered forward looking.

(NASDAQ: VDSI)

Vasco
Data
Security International


Bearish

VASCO Data Security International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and supports hardware and software security systems that manage and secure access to information assets worldwide. The company offers VACMAN Controller, a host system software authentication platform that combines technologies in one platform; IDENTIKEY Authentication Server that adds server functionality to the VACMAN core authentication platform; DIGIPASS as a Service, a cloud-based authentication service primarily for enterprise customers; and MYDIGIPASS solutions for end user authentication in the cloud. It also provides IDENTIKEY Appliance, an authentication solution that offers two-factor authentication for remote access to a corporate network or to Web-based in-house business applications; IDENTIKEY Virtual Appliance, a virtualized authentication appliance that secures remote access to corporate networks and Web-based applications; and IDENTIKEY Federation Server, a server appliance that provides an identity and access management platform. In addition, the company offers DIGIPASS Hardware authenticators to support authentication and digital signatures for applications running on desktop PCs, laptops, tablets, and smart phones; DIGIPASS Software authenticators, which provides customers with security for access to their networks and applications without having to carry a standalone hardware device; and DIGIPASS for Apps, a software development kit that allows developers to integrate application security, such as two-factor authentication and electronic signing into mobile applications. Further, its products provide calculate dynamic passwords that authenticate users logging onto networks or other applications. The company sells its security solutions through its direct sales force, distributors, resellers, and systems integrators. VASCO Data Security International, Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois.

Investment Highlights

  • GATS predicts VDSI will move down in the coming weeks. Target is $24.38. more
  • GROUP CORRELATION predicts the price of VDSI expected to move down to $24.03 in the coming weeks. more
  • VALUATION VDSI has a current calculated value of $8.57 which means the stock is overvalued compared to its price of $16.88.

Predictive Range July 22, 2015 - August 19, 2015

Anticipated price movement, between prediction date and target date, based on all market reads.
$25.76 - $24.20

How WealthMakers Market Reads Work:

WealthMakers Market Reads™ provide you with market performance predictions based on proprietary technologies, trading algorithms and data to help you make better, more informed investment decisions. Here's a quick review of our predictive technologies:

  • EARNINGS Most stock price histories show random or unpredictable movements around earnings reports. But some repeat the same pattern quarter after quarter, year after year. Earnings predicts probability, price move and length of move before and after all US stock earnings reports.
  • FRICTION FACTOR Friction Factor is based on the relationship between the price of a stock and the volume at which it's bought and sold. Normal and abnormal Friction factor patterns can help you time your buying and selling decisions for maximum earnings potential.
  • GATS The Global Automated Trading System (GATS) combines neural networks and genetic algorithms to reduce investment risks. GATS selects the highest probability trades in stocks, bonds, options, commodities, currencies and private equities, delivering precise, predictive and profitable data.
  • GROUP SECTOR Certain institutions can exert buying or selling pressure over an entire industry group, pushing prices higher. Group Sector identifies stocks that most closely match their group's movement and generate powerful group consensus trading signals to help you profit from the herd mentality.
  • PATTERN SCAN This technology automatically tracks "Trigger Events" that positively or negatively affect the value of a stock — or its perceived value among analysts — ranging from price fluctuations to natural disasters and political shifts. The results reveal patterns that can predict market movements.
  • EVENTS Events describe the current technical situation in your stock. It displays the technicals, trend conditions and seasonal factors and automatically discovers how that stock has performed in the trading days following the occurrences of the event or combination of events. This technology automatically scans using complex historical queries based on what event is taking place right now in the stock. It then displays the probability, expected return and number of trading days for the expected move.
  • RegSHO NAKED SHORTS SEC Regulation SHO mandates that if a clearing agent holds a fail-to-deliver position for 13 consecutive settlement days, it must purchase securities to close out its position, a.k.a. a forced cover. WealthMakers aggregates data from NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTCBB and PINKSHEETS to track stocks that are about to have forced covers.
  • SEASONALITY Seasonality analyzes more than 20 years of data to determine if stocks have a long or short seasonal bias, how many trading days the move is expected to last, the probability of that move and the percentage move the stock is expected to make based on the seasonal bias.
  • SQUEEZE TRIGGER Our proprietary database of more than 3,500,000,000 short sale transactions allows us to calculate the exact price at which the total short interest is short in each stock. Squeeze Trigger Alerts let you know exactly when a short squeeze will start and how to trade profitably.
  • VALUATION A stock's value is a function of its forecasted earnings per share and forecasted earnings growth, as well as profitability, interest and inflation rates. Valuation use these metrics to determine at what price a stock is undervalued or overvalued, so that you can make investment decisions accordingly.
  • INSIDER Significant stock sales or purchases by company "insiders" (officers or directors) can be a predictor of future price movements — up or down. The Insider strategy tracks these actions and correlates them with historical data to give you an investment edge.

Group Sector

 

Identifies stocks that respond to group consensus "herd mentality" market movements.

Vasco Data Security International (NASDAQ: VDSI) is predicted to go down as the top stocks in the Technology have fired sell signals. The majority of the top stocks in the Technology sector have fired sell signals as of today. Group rotation is a phenomenon where institutions exert buying or selling pressure in an industry group, pushing prices of the group higher or lower relative to the general market. An industry can often lead or lag the market, and the most highly correlated stocks usually move in unison.

  • The price of VDSI expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • VDSI is strongly correlated (0.64) to stocks in the Technology sector.
  • These stocks have fired sell signals, and VDSI is expected to follow.

GATS

 

Reduces risk by selecting the highest probability trades across market indices.

Vasco Data Security International (NASDAQ: VDSI) is expected to go down as bearish signals have been generated by top equity trading strategies. This trading system is designed to identify high probability reversion to mean trading candidates. It looks to go long immediately following strong sell-offs, and goes short after sharp run ups. Its trades are short term and hone in on the irrational decisions of emotional traders around these extreme moves.

  • The price of VDSI expected to move down in the coming weeks.
  • Suggested stop level of 23.25 to limit potential trading losses.

Squeeze Trigger

 

We have a proprietary database of all trading in US stocks and maintain massive databases of short sale and naked short sale time and sales data, along with short squeeze SqueezeTrigger prices. We are the only firm that knows the exact price that a short squeeze will start in every US stock.

The Cumulative Squeeze Trigger price for VDSI is 18.22.

Date Short Volume Short Value SqueezeTrigger
2015-07-31 4285414 118656685.539 27.6885
2015-06-30 12422259 384353389.041 30.9407
2015-05-31 2376054 59798151.018 25.167
2015-04-30 8318522 208513736.156 25.0662
2015-03-31 7712450 177875319.33 23.0634
2015-02-28 11633960 312996569.652 26.9037
2015-01-31 4310848 105070022.643 24.3734
2014-12-31 4957746 136853620.584 27.604
2014-11-30 4212666 114875610.421 27.2691
2014-10-31 5092915 104366051.346 20.4924
2014-09-30 3436426 60920616.4854 17.7279
2014-08-31 1227933 17512166.4795 14.2615
2014-07-31 329340 3748482.012 11.3818
2014-06-30 17337 191400.48 11.04
2014-05-31 798950 9066804.18 11.3484
2014-04-30 490183 4106949.2472 8.3784
2014-03-31 273436 2226917.4712 8.1442
2014-02-28 554283 4300182.9423 7.7581
2014-01-31 276854 2112257.593 7.6295
2013-12-31 287880 2226723.012 7.7349

Friction Factor

 

Friction Factor determines if there is normal or abnormal behavior in the price action of the stock when compared to the buying vs. selling trading statistics. It shows us how many more shares of buying than selling it takes to move a stock higher by 1 cent, or how many more shares of selling than buying it takes to drop a stock by 1 cent.
Here is how to understand Friction Factor:

  • If Friction Factor is positive, more buying than selling caused VDSI's price to rise
  • If Friction Factor is negative, more selling than buying caused VDSI's price to fall
  • If Friction Factor is 0, there was no discernable activity either way
  • If Friction Factor is abnormal, it means that more buying than selling caused the price to drop which is evidence of manipulative activity. In some cases more selling than buying can cause the price to increase. While this is rare, it must be noted as well. Friction Factor raw data.

Date Change Buy Vol Sell Vol Net Vol Friction
2015-07-22 -0.44 664853 558620 106233 Bearish Bias
2015-07-21 -1.44 333275 311286 21989 Bearish Bias
2015-07-20 -0.55 493134 348977 144157 Bearish Bias
2015-07-17 -0.58 297337 315460 -18123 -312.4655172
2015-07-16 0.92 517534 420657 96877 1053.01087
2015-07-15 -0.89 383840 560165 -176325 -1981.179775
2015-07-14 -0.6 411631 443607 -31976 -532.9333333
2015-07-13 0.58 580071 554409 25662 442.4482759
2015-07-10 -0.05 438226 387918 50308 Bearish Bias
2015-07-09 0.97 488299 535844 -47545 Bullish Bias
2015-07-08 -0.56 949162 628054 321108 Bearish Bias
2015-07-07 -0.66 678616 678466 150 Bearish Bias
2015-07-06 -0.56 544377 439756 104621 Bearish Bias
2015-07-02 -1.32 768799 704748 64051 Bearish Bias
2015-07-01 -0.29 513656 502308 11348 Bearish Bias
2015-06-30 0.68 424283 483019 -58736 Bullish Bias
2015-06-29 -1.49 1264243 1108887 155356 Bearish Bias
2015-06-26 -2.65 1215721 1386885 -171164 -645.9018868
2015-06-25 0.58 612838 513010 99828 1721.172414
2015-06-24 -1.03 721481 673603 47878 Bearish Bias

Valuation

 

Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. VDSI has a current value of 8.57 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $16.88 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease.

General Results

 

Past success in predictions regarding all predictions on the WealthMakers platform.

Our prediction engine has a track record that is second to none. See for our results.

Read Type Avg Return Avg Maturity Days Hits Misses % Accurate
Insider 16.387 81.68 12978 595 95.62%
SqueezeTrigger 12.493 21.73 9743 668 93.58%
Valuation 14.484 26.96 4201 302 93.29%
Seasonality 7.292 15.23 52831 4955 91.43%
Group Correlation 6.682 14.44 6974 816 89.53%
PatternScan 8.453 11.45 196111 28922 87.15%
Events 6.847 11.27 4259 659 86.60%
Earnings 8.511 10.33 24460 4901 83.31%
GATS 5.413 7.9 68891 14083 83.03%
Naked Shorts 13.824 10.99 2762 708 79.60%
Friction Factor 6.985 3.64 7411 2112 77.82%

Prediction Success

 

Past success in predictions regarding Vasco Data Security International.

  • July 23, 2015 - Vasco Data Security International Inc (NASDAQ:VDSI), Down By 5.41% ($1.39) From $25.690 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Down Due To Bearish Conditions
  • April 17, 2015 - Vasco Data Security International Inc (NASDAQ:VDSI), Up By 6.83% ($1.70) From $24.900 After ${brandname}.com Report Predicted Stock Would Go Up Due To Bullish Conditions

About Wealthmakers

WealthMakers gives institutional and individual investors an exclusive advantage in making precise, predictive and profitable trading decisions. Our proprietary technologies — Earnings, Seasonality, Squeeze Trigger, Group Sector and GATS — apply artificial intelligence, proprietary algorithms, market data and research to help our clients realize exponential returns. Find out more at WealthMakers.com.

All material herein was prepared by WealthMakers, based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by WealthMakers to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. WealthMakers is not a registered investment advisor in the State of California. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein. WealthMakers or its affiliates may receive compensation from independent third parties, or from the companies mentioned, for data provided in this report or related services. WealthMakers affiliates, officers, directors and employees do not own shares of the company mentioned in this report, but may from time to time buy/sell the shares discussed in this opinion and may profit from those trades. Market commentary provided by Thomas Ronk, a registered investment advisor and commodities trading advisor in California. WealthMakers will not advise as to when it decides to sell and does not and will not offer any opinion as to when others should sell; each investor must make that decision based on his or her judgment.

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2011 WealthMakers

Overview
Last Price$16.88
52 Week Range$6.47 - $13.15
1 Month Range$10.60 - $12.40
Avg Daily Volume230850.0
PE Ratio35.92
 
Earnings Per Share
YearEPS
2015(E)$0.304
 
Capitalization
Shares Outstanding39MM
Market Capitalization$429.60MM
 
 

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